2022 Danish European Union opt-out referendum

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Danish European Union opt-out referendum

1 June 2022 (2022-06-01)

Do you vote yes or no for Denmar being able to participate in the European defence and security co-operation by abolishing the EU defense opt-out? (Proposed law on Denmark's participation in the European defence and security co-operation)[a][1]
Results
Choice
Votes %
Yes 1,848,242 66.87%
No 915,717 33.13%
Valid votes 2,763,959 98.62%
Invalid or blank votes 38,558 1.38%
Total votes 2,802,517 100.00%
Registered voters/turnout 4,260,944 65.77%

Results of the referendum
Yes:      50–55%      55–60%      60–65%      65–70%      70–75%      75–80%      80%+
No:      50–55%      55–60%      60–65%
Source: Statistics Denmark[2]

A referendum on the abolition of the defense opt-out, one of the country's opt-outs from the European Union, was held in Denmark on 1 June 2022.[3][4][b] The referendum was announced on 6 March 2022 following a broad multi-party defense agreement reached during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[5] The referendum resulted in the yes side winning with approximately two-thirds of the vote.[6]

Background

After the rejection of the Maastricht Treaty in the 1992 referendum, the Edinburgh Agreement was reached, which gave Denmark four opt-outs in the European Union, with one of these opt-outs being on defense matters. The Maastricht Treaty was subsequently ratified in 1993. The defense opt-out means that Denmark does not participate in the Common Security and Defence Policy or EU military operations.[7] In addition, the opt-out means that Denmark does not participate in the decision processes in the EU related to military operations.[8]

This is the third referendum to be held in relation to country's opt-outs. In 2000 the Danish electorate rejected the adoption of the euro as national currency and in 2015 a proposal to modify the justice opt-out was also rejected.

For a referendum to be rejected, a majority of participating voters must vote against, and the voters voting against must represent at least 30% of the electorate. However the parties behind the defense agreement have agreed that the result of the referendum should stand regardless of the turnout.[9] As such, the referendum effectively has no turnout requirement.

Campaign

The defense agreement was signed and presented by the leaders of the Social Democrats, Venstre, Green Left (Socialist People's Party), Social Liberal Party, and the Conservative Party.[5][10] The parties endorsed the agreement, which also included increased defense spending and the aim of ending the country's dependency on Russian gas. Liberal Alliance and the Christian Democrats have also endorsed the "Yes" option,[11] while the Independent Greens voted "Yes" but did not recommend voters what they should vote.[12]

The Danish People's Party, New Right, Young Conservatives and the Red-Green Alliance have opposed the abolition of the opt-out, recommending the electorate vote "No".[11]

On 30 March, the Danish Foreign Ministry released two bills (draft laws) for organising the referendum and joining the Common Security and Defence Policy.[13] Following this, the wording of the referendum question, which did not mention the European Union nor the opt-out,[c] was criticised by the Danish People's Party and the Red-Green Alliance.[14] Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod defended the wording, emphasising that the vote was about joining the other 26 EU member states. Following the criticism, Kofod announced a changing to the wording on 7 April, which now reads as "Do you vote for or against Denmark's participation in the European defence and security co-operation by abolishing the EU defense opt-out?"[15]

Concern was raised that eliminating the opt-out and participating in the CSDP could eventually lead to Denmark having to join a European army if one were to be created down the road. Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod committed that any such change would require treaty revisions, which would be put to the Danish people for approval in a new referendum.[16]

Television debates

Four major television debates involving the leaders of parties represented in the Folketing were held.[17][18][19]

Date Organisers Venue  P  Present   S  Surrogate   NI  Not invited    I  Invited  
Yes No
A V F B C I Q Å K M Ø O D
11 May[20] DR1 War Museum, Copenhagen P
Frederiksen
P
Ellemann
P
Olsen Dyhr
P
Carsten Nielsen
P
Pape
P
Vanopslagh
P
Siddique
P
Rosenkilde
P
Arendt[d]
P
Løkke
P
Villadsen
P
Messerschmidt
P
Vermund
18 May[18] TV 2 News Dokk1, Aarhus S
Bødskov
P
Ellemann
P
Olsen Dyhr
NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P
Villadsen
P
Messerschmidt
NI
29 May[21] TV2 Christiansborg, Copenhagen P
Frederiksen
P
Ellemann
P
Olsen Dyhr
P
Carsten Nielsen
P
Pape
P
Vanopslagh
P
Siddique
P
Rosenkilde
P
Karlsmose
P
Løkke
P
Villadsen
P
Messerschmidt
P
Vermund
31 May DR1 DR Koncerthuset, Copenhagen P
Frederiksen
P
Ellemann
P
Olsen Dyhr
P
Carsten Nielsen
P
Pape
P
Vanopslagh
P
Siddique
P
Rosenkilde
P
Karlsmose
P
Løkke
P
Villadsen
P
Messerschmidt
P
Vermund

Opinion polls

Date(s) Polling agency Sample Yes No Undecided Lead
30 May 2022 Epinion 44% 28% 19% 16%
27–30 May 2022 Voxmeter 1,091 53% 28% 19% 25%
23–27 May 2022 Voxmeter 2,008 51% 27% 22% 24%
16–22 May 2022 Voxmeter 45.5% 30% 24.6% 15.5%
9 May 2022 Epinion 38% 27% 35% 11%
6 May 2022 Megafon 1,009 39% 26% 35% 13%
20-27 April 2022 Epinion 2,090 39% 26% 35% 13%
18-24 April 2022 Voxmeter 39.5% 32.1% 28.4% 7.4%
4-10 April 2022 Voxmeter/Ritzau 38.8% 32.4% 28.8% 6.4%
31 March–7 April 2022 Epinion 2,102 36% 27% 37% 9%
28 March-3 April 2022 Voxmeter/Ritzau 1,007 39.2% 35.8% 25% 3.4%
22–28 March 2022 Voxmeter 1,000 40.3% 35.4% 24.3% 4.9%
14–20 March 2022 Voxmeter 1,509 38.2% 30.9% 30.9% 7.3%
6–20 March 2022 Wilke 1,000 42% 30% 28% 12%
8–15 March 2022 Epinion 1,020 38% 23% 39% 15%
7–11 March 2022 Voxmeter 1,509 44.2% 28.7% 27.1% 15.5%
7–8 March 2022 Megafon 2,054 55% 23% 22% 32%
6 March: The government of Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announces a referendum on the Danish defence opt-out to be held on 1 June.[10]
3–4 March 2022[e] Megafon 1,092 49% 27% 23% 22%

Results

ChoiceVotes%
For1,848,24266.87
Against915,71733.13
Total2,763,959100.00
Valid votes2,763,95998.62
Invalid votes5,8190.21
Blank votes32,7391.17
Total votes2,802,517100.00
Registered voters/turnout4,260,94465.77
Source: Danmarks Statistik

Results by constituency

Reactions

Exit polls released by national broadcasters DR and TV 2 immediately after polls closed at 20:00 CEST (18:00 UTC) showed a large majority of the electorate had voted yes.[22][23] This was the first time that Denmark had ever abolished one of its EU opt-outs.[24] This was the largest share of the vote ever received by the yes side in an EU-referendum, with the result being described by some as a landslide. The turnout at 65.8% was noted as one of the lowest of any EU referendum, with only the 2014 referendum having had a lower turnout.[25] Election scholars expressed concern and attributed the low turnout to some parties being hesitant to campaign, as well as the opinion polls prior to the election showing the yes side having a large lead.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen noted that she was "very very happy" for the result, and said that Denmark had sent a very important signal to its allies and a clear signal to Vladimir Putin.[24] She also praised the cooperation with the other parties which had advocated in favor of the referendum. Frederiksen emphasised that there were no plans to abolish Denmark's remaining opt-outs, promising that the referendum had been "about the defence opt-out and nothing else". Venstre leader Jakob Ellemann-Jensen said that the vote sent a clear result that other countries could count on Denmark. He then focused on the next general election, saying that the Danish right-wing should work together to give Denmark a new government.[26]

Morten Messerschmidt commented that the result showed that the Danish People's Party was alive.[27] He noted that many people's votes were "influenced by the war in Ukraine". Political Spokesperson of Red–Green Alliance, Mai Villadsen, said that she had "very large respect" for the result of the election.[28] She noted that many of the party's voters had voted yes, and promised that the party would remain engaged with defence policy.

European Commision President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the result and said that Denmark and the EU "would benefit from the decision"[29] French President Emmanuel Macron said that it was a "fantastic news for our Europe" and that "we are stronger together".[30]

Following the referendum, the Danish Foreign Ministry stated that it planned to formally ratify the decision and notify the EU of its participation in time for it to be effective from 1 July.[31]

Notes

  1. ^ Danish: Stemmer du ja eller nej til, at Danmark kan deltage i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar ved at afskaffe EU-forsvarsforbeholdet? (Forslag til lov om Danmarks deltagelse i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar)
  2. ^ The vote did not take place on the Faroe Islands or Greenland, which are not part of the European Union. See Faroe Islands and the European Union, Greenland and the European Union, and withdrawal of Greenland from the European Communities for details.
  3. ^ Do you vote for or against Denmark's participation in the European defence and security co-operation?
    Danish: Stemmer du ja eller nej til, at Danmark kan deltage i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar? (Forslag til lov om Danmarks deltagelse i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar)
  4. ^ Arendt resigned as party leader during the campaign on 17 May.
  5. ^ The wording of the question differs from the referendum: "Drop the defence opt-out and join a joint EU army?"

References

  1. ^ "Formulering på stemmeseddel ved folkeafstemning minder om direkte snyderi, mener Enhedslisten". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-03-30. Retrieved 2022-03-30.
  2. ^ "Folkeafstemning onsdag 1. juni 2022: Resultater - Foreløbig opgørelse af valgresultat". dst.dk (in Danish). Statistics Denmark. Retrieved 1 June 2022.
  3. ^ "Danskerne skal stemme om forsvarsforbeholdet 1. juni". TV2 (in Danish). 2022-03-06. Retrieved 2022-03-06.
  4. ^ "Endeligt udkast til forslag til Lov om Danmarks deltagelse i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar" (PDF). 30 March 2022. Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 March 2022. Retrieved 14 April 2022.
  5. ^ a b "Nationalt kompromis om dansk sikkerhedspolitik" [National compromise on Danish security policy] (PDF). Regeringen (in Danish). 6 March 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2022.
  6. ^ "Resultater - Folkeafstemning onsdag 1. juni 2022 - Danmarks Statistik". dst.dk. Retrieved 2022-06-01.
  7. ^ "Danmark og EU". Forsvarsministeriet (in Danish). Retrieved 2022-03-08.
  8. ^ "Hvad betyder det, om det bliver et ja eller et nej til forsvarsforbeholdet? - TV 2". TV2 (in Danish). 2022-03-06. Retrieved 2022-03-08.
  9. ^ "Endeligt udkast til forslag til Lov om Danmarks deltagelse i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar" (PDF). 30 March 2022. p. 7. Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 March 2022. Retrieved 14 April 2022.
  10. ^ a b "Forsvarsforbeholdet skal til folkeafstemning 1. juni, og Forsvaret skal styrkes" (in Danish). DR. 2022-03-06. Retrieved 2022-03-08.
  11. ^ a b "Her er de stærkeste argumenter for og imod forsvarsforbeholdet - TV 2". TV2 (in Danish). 2022-03-08. Retrieved 2022-03-08.
  12. ^ "Vi stemmer JA – Hvad stemmer du?". Independent Greens. 11 May 2022. Archived from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 1 June 2022. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 12 May 2022 suggested (help)
  13. ^ "Høring om to lovforslag vedrørende folkeafstemning om Danmarks deltagelse i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar". via.ritzau.dk. Retrieved 2022-03-31.
  14. ^ "Formulering på stemmeseddel ved folkeafstemning minder om direkte snyderi, mener Enhedslisten - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-03-30. Retrieved 2022-03-31.
  15. ^ "Ordlyden på stemmesedlen om forsvarsforbeholdet ændres - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-04-07. Retrieved 2022-04-07.
  16. ^ "Kofod forsøger at berolige EU-skeptikere: Lover ny afstemning, hvis fælles EU-hær bliver realitet". DR. 2022-04-20. Retrieved 2022-04-30.
  17. ^ "Sådan dækker DR folkeafstemningen om forsvarsforbeholdet". DR (in Danish). 2022-05-05. Retrieved 2022-05-29.
  18. ^ a b "Folkeafstemning om forsvarsforbeholdet: TV 2 NEWS og Radio4 samler politikere og eksperter til stor debat i Aarhus". omtv2.tv2.dk (in Danish). Retrieved 2022-05-29.
  19. ^ "Ja eller nej til forsvarsforbeholdet? TV 2 skruer op for dækningen på alle platforme". omtv2.tv2.dk (in Danish). Retrieved 2022-05-29.
  20. ^ "MINUT FOR MINUT: Sådan gik det, da partilederne tørnede sammen om forsvarsforbeholdet". DR (in Danish). 2022-05-11. Retrieved 2022-05-29.
  21. ^ "Bølgerne gik højt i EU-debat – her er fem nedslag - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-05-29. Retrieved 2022-05-31.
  22. ^ "Exitpoll: Stort flertal stemmer 'ja' til at afskaffe forsvarsforbeholdet | Seneste nyt". DR (in Danish). Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  23. ^ "Exitpoll: Flertal stemmer ja - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-06-01. Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  24. ^ a b "Danskerne stemmer ja til at afskaffe forsvarsforbeholdet - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-06-01. Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  25. ^ "Lav valgdeltagelse bekymrer: 'Det er et nederlag for demokratiet'". DR (in Danish). 2022-06-02. Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  26. ^ "Ellemann glæder sig over ja – og ser frem mod næste valg - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-06-01. Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  27. ^ "Ellemann glæder sig over ja – og ser frem mod næste valg - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-06-01. Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  28. ^ "Mai Villadsen: Mange af vores vælgere har stemt ja - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-06-01. Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  29. ^ "Resten af Europa omfavner Danmark efter historisk resultat - TV 2". nyheder.tv2.dk (in Danish). 2022-06-01. Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  30. ^ Macron, Emmanuel (1 June 2022). "Aujourd'hui, le peuple danois a voté pour rejoindre la politique européenne de défense. C'est une excellente nouvelle pour notre Europe ! Nous sommes plus forts ensemble". Twitter (in French). Retrieved 2022-06-02.
  31. ^ "Danes vote yes to abolish EU defence opt-out – here are the next steps". Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Denmark). 2022-06-02. Retrieved 2022-06-05.

Further reading