(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/intfin/v11y2008i1p49-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar

Author

Listed:
  • Menzie Chinn
  • Jeffrey Frankel

Abstract

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the dollar rose to challenge the pound 70 years ago. This paper uses econometrically-estimated determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve holdings of the world’s central banks. Significant factors include: size of the home country, rate of return, and liquidity in the relevant home financial center (as measured by the turnover in its foreign exchange market). There is a tipping phenomenon, but changes are felt only with a long lag (we estimate a weight on the preceding year’s currency share around .9). The equation correctly predicts out-of-sample a (small) narrowing in the gap between the dollar and euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the scenario where the United Kingdom joins euroland. But we do take into account of the fact that London has nonetheless become the de facto financial center of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future to depreciate at the trend rate that it has shown on average over the last 20 years. The conclusion is that the euro may surpass the dollar as leading international reserve currency as early as 2015.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 2008. "Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 49-73, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:49-73
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2008.00215.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2008.00215.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2008.00215.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-94, April.
    2. Hélène Rey, 2001. "International Trade and Currency Exchange," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 443-464.
    3. Black, Stanley W., 1991. "Transactions costs and vehicle currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 512-526, December.
    4. Mr. George S Tavlas & Yusuru Ozeki, 1991. "The Japanese Yen as an International Currency," IMF Working Papers 1991/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133.
    6. Paul R. Krugman, 1984. "The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 261-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2007. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 283-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Yusuru Ozeki & Mr. George S Tavlas, 1992. "The Internationalization of Currencies: An Appraisal of the Japanese Yen," IMF Occasional Papers 1992/001, International Monetary Fund.
    9. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1.
    10. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 1998. "The emergence of the euro as an international currency," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 306-343.
    11. Canzoneri,Matthew B. & Grilli,Vittorio & Masson,Paul R. (ed.), 1992. "Establishing a Central Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521420983, September.
    12. Kiminori Matsuyama & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Akihiko Matsui, 1993. "Toward a Theory of International Currency," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 283-307.
    13. Michael P. Dooley & J. Saul Lizondo & Donald J. Mathieson, 1989. "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 385-434, June.
    14. Barry Eichengreen and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1996. "On the SDR: Reserve Currencies and the Future of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-068, University of California at Berkeley.
    15. Gabriele Galati & Philip Wooldridge, 2009. "The euro as a reserve currency: a challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-23.
    16. Eichengreen, Barry & Mathieson, Donald J., "undated". "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves Retrospect and Prospect," WIDER Working Papers 295509, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Hartmann, Philipp, 1998. "The Currency Denomination of World Trade after European Monetary Union," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 424-454, December.
    18. James Boughton, 2001. "Northwest of Suez: The 1956 Crisis and the IMF," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-1.
    19. Barry Eichengreen, 2005. "Sterling's Past, Dollar's Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition," NBER Working Papers 11336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. McKinnon, Ronald I., 1979. "Money in International Exchange: The Convertible Currency System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195024098.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Menzie D. Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency," NBER Working Papers 13909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2007. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 283-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2012. "Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 329-365.
    5. Gabriele Galati & Philip Wooldridge, 2009. "The euro as a reserve currency: a challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kannan, Prakash, 2009. "On the welfare benefits of an international currency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 588-606, July.
    8. Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "Renminbi Rules: The Conditional Imminence of the Reserve Currency Transition," Working Paper Series WP11-14, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    10. Chiţu, Livia & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 225-245.
    11. Robert McCauley, 1999. "The Euro and the Dollar, 1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 91-133, February.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Chitu Livia & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run," Globalization Institute Working Papers 201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-94, April.
    14. Menzie Chinn, 2015. "Emerging Market Economies and the Next Reserve Currencies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 155-174, February.
    15. McCauley, R.N., 1997. "The Euro and the Dollar," Princeton Essays in International Economics 205, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    16. Devereux, Michael B. & Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2007. "Global monetary policy under a dollar standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-132, March.
    17. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    18. Arslanalp, Serkan & Eichengreen, Barry & Simpson-Bell, Chima, 2022. "The stealth erosion of dollar dominance and the rise of nontraditional reserve currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. Neaime, Simon & Paschakis, John, 2002. "The future of the dollar-euro exchange rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 56-71, May.
    20. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 317, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:49-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1367-0271 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.