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Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?
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Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?

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  • KUANG‐LIANG CHANG
  • CHI‐WEI HE

Abstract

A bivariate Markov regime switching model is employed to verify whether the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, or the negative effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on output growth, vary with the level of inflation. Inflation and inflation uncertainty are positively correlated in the high‐inflation regime. In contrast, in the low‐inflation regime, the direct effect of inflation on output growth is insignificant, but the indirect negative effect on growth via inflation uncertainty is highly significant. The negative influence in a high‐inflation regime is 2.664 times greater than that in a low‐inflation regime.

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  • Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:2:p:126-148
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02162.x
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    4. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2019. "Regime Dependent Effect Of Output Growth On Output Growth Uncertainty: Evidence From Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 257-282, July.
    5. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    6. Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE & Cheikh Tidiane NDIAYE, 2012. "Incertitude de l'inflation et croissance économique : le cas de l'UEMOA," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 753, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
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    10. B. Balaji & S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2016. "The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, June.
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    12. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2018. "Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.
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    16. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Akram Hasanov & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from two Transition Economies," Discussion Paper Series 2011_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2011.
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    20. Canepa, Alessandra, 2024. "Inflation dynamics and persistence: The importance of the uncertainty channel," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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