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Free and perfectly safe but only partially effective vaccines can harm everyone
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Free and perfectly safe but only partially effective vaccines can harm everyone

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  • Talamàs, Eduard
  • Vohra, Rakesh

Abstract

Risk compensation can undermine the ability of partially-effective vaccines to curb epidemics: Vaccinated agents may optimally choose to engage in more risky interactions and, as a result, may increase everyone's infection probability. We show that—in contrast to the prediction of standard models—things can be worse than that: Free and perfectly safe but only partially effective vaccines can reduce everyone's welfare, and hence fail to satisfy—in a strong sense—the fundamental principle of “first, do no harm.” Our main departure from standard economic epidemiological models is that we allow agents to strategically choose their partners, which we show creates strategic complementarities in risky interactions. As a result, the introduction of a partially-effective vaccine can lead to a much denser interaction structure—whose negative welfare effects overwhelm the beneficial direct welfare effects of this intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Talamàs, Eduard & Vohra, Rakesh, 2020. "Free and perfectly safe but only partially effective vaccines can harm everyone," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 277-289.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:122:y:2020:i:c:p:277-289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2020.05.001
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    Cited by:

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    3. Serge Blondel & François Langot & Judith E. Mueller & Jonathan Sicsic, 2021. "Preferences and Covid-19 Vaccination Intentions," Working Papers hal-03381425, HAL.
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    7. Mark Whitmeyer, 2021. "An imperfect test for a virus can Be worse than No test at all," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1347-1360, June.
    8. Matteo Bizzarri & Fabrizio Panebianco & Paolo Pin, 2023. "Homophily and infections: static and dynamic effects," Papers 2304.11934, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    9. Joshua S. Gans, 2023. "Vaccine Hesitancy, Passports, And The Demand For Vaccination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 641-652, May.
    10. Adriani, Fabrizio & Ladley, Dan, 2021. "Social distance, speed of containment and crowding in/out in a network model of contagion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 597-625.
    11. Muller, Seán M., 2021. "The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa’s Covid-19 response and its consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemics; Vaccines; Risk compensation; Social structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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