(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Does foreign investor demand for information affect forecast accuracy? Evidence from the Chinese stock markets
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jiaata/v18y2009i2p101-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does foreign investor demand for information affect forecast accuracy? Evidence from the Chinese stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Barniv, Ran

Abstract

Prior international accounting studies have examined mainly the supply side of analyst research. Specific trading rights and financial reporting systems in China provide a unique opportunity to test both demand and supply factors of analyst information. For shares traded only by less-informed foreign investors, the increased information demand may create incentives for analysts to exert greater efforts than for shares traded by local investors. This study provides evidence that analyst effort (proxied by analyst coverage) and expertise (proxied by consensus cross-analyst forecast variability) affect forecast accuracy more significantly for shares traded by foreign investors than for shares traded by local investors. Additionally, I find that the relation between analyst characteristics and relative forecast accuracy is stronger for shares traded by the foreign investors. The findings are consistent with analysts responding to demands for information by less-informed investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Barniv, Ran, 2009. "Does foreign investor demand for information affect forecast accuracy? Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 101-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jiaata:v:18:y:2009:i:2:p:101-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intaccaudtax.2009.05.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1061951809000160
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intaccaudtax.2009.05.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    2. Sudipta Basu & LeeSeok Hwang & Ching‐Lih Jan, 1998. "International Variation in Accounting Measurement Rules and Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Errors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9‐10), pages 1207-1247, November.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    5. Chakravarty, Sugato & Sarkar, Asani & Wu, Lifan, 1998. "Information asymmetry, market segmentation and the pricing of cross-listed shares: theory and evidence from Chinese A and B shares," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 325-356, December.
    6. Frankel, Richard & Kothari, S.P. & Weber, Joseph, 2006. "Determinants of the informativeness of analyst research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 29-54, April.
    7. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    8. Abdel-khalik, A. Rashad & Wong, Kie Ann & Wu, Annie, 1999. "The Information Environment of China's A and B Shares: Can We Make Sense of the Numbers?," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 467-489, 010.
    9. Ole‐Kristian Hope, 2003. "Disclosure Practices, Enforcement of Accounting Standards, and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: An International Study," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 235-272, May.
    10. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Robin, Ashok, 2000. "Corrigendum to "The effect of international institutional factors on properties of accounting earnings"; [Journal of Accounting and Economics 29 (2000) 1-51]," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 241-241, October.
    11. Mark H. Lang & Karl V. Lins & Darius P. Miller, 2004. "Concentrated Control, Analyst Following, and Valuation: Do Analysts Matter Most When Investors Are Protected Least?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 589-623, June.
    12. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Robin, Ashok, 2000. "The effect of international institutional factors on properties of accounting earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51, February.
    13. Ang, James S. & Ma, Yulong, 1999. "Transparency in Chinese stocks: A study of earnings forecasts by professional analysts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 129-155, May.
    14. In†Mu Haw & Daqing Qi & Donghui Wu & Woody Wu, 2005. "Market Consequences of Earnings Management in Response to Security Regulations in China," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 95-140, March.
    15. Sami, Heibatollah & Zhou, Haiyan, 2004. "A comparison of value relevance of accounting information in different segments of the Chinese stock market," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 403-427.
    16. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
    17. Moyer, R. Charles & Chatfield, Robert E. & Sisneros, Phillip M., 1989. "Security Analyst Monitoring Activity: Agency Costs and Information Demands," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 503-512, December.
    18. Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 131-157.
    19. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    20. Tarun Khanna & Krishna G. Palepu & Suraj Srinivasan, 2004. "Disclosure Practices of Foreign Companies Interacting with U.S. Markets," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 475-508, May.
    21. Ran Barniv & Mark J. Myring & Wayne B. Thomas, 2005. "The Association between the Legal and Financial Reporting Environments and Forecast Performance of Individual Analysts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 727-758, December.
    22. Aharony, J & Lee, CWJ & Wong, TJ, 2000. "Financial packaging of IPO firms in China," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 103-126.
    23. Brian J. Bushee, 2004. "Discussion of Disclosure Practices of Foreign Companies Interacting with U.S. Markets," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 509-525, May.
    24. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    25. Kalok Chan & Albert J. Menkveld & Zhishu Yang, 2008. "Information Asymmetry and Asset Prices: Evidence from the China Foreign Share Discount," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 159-196, February.
    26. Butler, Kc & Lang, Lhp, 1991. "The Forecast Accuracy Of Individual Analysts - Evidence Of Systematic Optimism And Pessimism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 150-156.
    27. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87, April.
    28. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    29. Chaney, Paul K. & Hogan, Chris E. & Jeter, Debra C., 1999. "The effect of reporting restructuring charges on analysts' forecast revisions and errors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 261-284, July.
    30. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bartholdy, Jan & Feng, Tiyi, 2013. "The quality of securities firms' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations: Do informational advantages, reputation and experience matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 66-88.
    2. Liu, Sun, 2017. "The impact of equity incentive plans on analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations for Chinese listed firms: An empirical study," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Elshandidy, Tamer, 2014. "Value relevance of accounting information: Evidence from an emerging market," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 176-186.
    4. Huang, Wei & Wright, Brian, 2015. "Analyst earnings forecast under complex corporate ownership in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 69-84.
    5. Indrit Troshani & Nick Rowbottom, 2021. "Digital Corporate Reporting: Research Developments and Implications," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 31(3), pages 213-232, September.
    6. Eliwa, Yasser & Haslam, Jim & Abraham, Santhosh, 2021. "Earnings quality and analysts’ information environment: Evidence from the EU market," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Wang, Ying & Liu, Zisen & Wang, Xin, 2022. "The supply of analysts and earnings forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Xu Cheng & Dongmin Kong & Xinwei Zheng & Qi Tang, 2022. "Do foreign investors crowd out sell‐side analysts? Evidence from China," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 815-834, November.
    9. Dykxhoorn, Hans J. & Sinning, Kathleen E., 2010. "A review and analysis of international accounting research in JIAAT: 2002–2010," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 137-153.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Hugon, Artur & Muslu, Volkan, 2010. "Market demand for conservative analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 42-57, May.
    3. Tsalavoutas, Ioannis & André, Paul & Evans, Lisa, 2012. "The transition to IFRS and the value relevance of financial statements in Greece," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 262-277.
    4. Ayres, Douglas & Huang, Xuerong (Sharon) & Myring, Mark, 2017. "Fair value accounting and analyst forecast accuracy," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-70.
    5. Bolliger, Guido, 2004. "The characteristics of individual analysts' forecasts in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2283-2309, September.
    6. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    7. Christopher Koch & Ola Nilsson & Katarina Eriksson, 2014. "Does shareholder protection affect the performance of analysts as a gatekeeper?," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 18(2), pages 315-345, May.
    8. Xiaomeng Chen, 2010. "Australian evidence on the accuracy of analysts' expectations," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 94-116, July.
    9. Lin, Hai & Tao, Xinyuan & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Forecasting earnings with combination of analyst forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-159.
    10. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    11. García-Meca, Emma & Sánchez-Ballesta, Juan Pedro, 2006. "Influences on financial analyst forecast errors: A meta-analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-52, February.
    12. Chen, Li-Wen & Yu, Hsin-Yi & Huang, Hsu-Huei, 2015. "Revisiting the earnings–price effect: The importance of future earnings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 90-96.
    13. Mintchik, Natalia, 2009. "The impact of SFAS No. 141 on earnings predictability of merging firms: Evidence from the initial year of implementation," Research in Accounting Regulation, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 89-99.
    14. BC, Bishal & Esfahani, Sharif, 2020. "The role of debt contracts in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    15. Kim, Yongtae & Lobo, Gerald J. & Song, Minsup, 2011. "Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2158-2168, August.
    16. Barniv, Ran R. & Myring, Mark & Westfall, Tiffany, 2022. "Does IFRS experience improve analyst performance?," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    17. Elisa Cavezzali & Jacopo Crepaldi & Ugo Rigoni, 2014. "Proximity to hubs of expertise and financial analyst forecast accuracy," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 157-179, December.
    18. John Capstaff & Krishna Paudyal & William Rees, 1999. "The relative forecast accuracy of UK brokers," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 3-16.
    19. Clement, Michael B. & Koonce, Lisa & Lopez, Thomas J., 2007. "The roles of task-specific forecasting experience and innate ability in understanding analyst forecasting performance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 378-398, December.
    20. Carole Gresse & Laurence Porteu de la Morandière, 2015. "Rising and Senior Stars in European Financial Analyst Rankings: The Talented and the Famous," Working Papers 01, Groupe ESC Pau, Research Department, revised Jan 2015.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jiaata:v:18:y:2009:i:2:p:101-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-international-accounting-auditing-and-taxation .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.