(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
The adequacy of the traditional Econometric approach to non-linear Cycles
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gmf/journl/y2003i17p70-83.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

The adequacy of the traditional Econometric approach to non-linear Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Luís Aguiar-Conraria

    (University of Minho)

Abstract

To show that the traditional econometric approach is not able to deal with deterministic chaos, I use an extension of Goodwin's growth cycle model to generate artificial data for output. An EGARCH model is estimated to describe the data generation process. Although, using some traditional econometric tests, no evidence of misspecification is found, the estimated process is qualitatively wrong: it is dynamically stable when the true process is unstable. A specific econometric procedure developed to deal with deterministic chaos is presented: the BDS statistics. Also an explanation for the little evidence of deterministic chaos in aggregated macroeconomic time series is suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2003. "The adequacy of the traditional Econometric approach to non-linear Cycles," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 17, pages 70-83, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2003:i:17:p:70-83
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://impactum-journals.uc.pt/notaseconomicas/about
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    2. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1997. "Models of Compelxity in Economics and Finance," Working papers 9706, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2007. "Assessing the Performance of a Prediction Error Criterion Model Selection Algorithm in the Context of ARCH Models," MPRA Paper 96324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mizrach Bruce, 2005. "A Video Interview of Buz Brock," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, March.
    5. Adrangi, Bahram & Chatrath, Arjun & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy & Raffiee, Kambiz, 2001. "Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 405-425, July.
    6. Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy, 2002. "Are commodity prices chaotic?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 123-137, August.
    7. Tancrède Voituriez, 1998. "Dynamique non linéaire du marché mondial des huiles et des graisses," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 22-29.
    8. Ohashi, Alberto Masayoshi F ., 2001. "Instability and chaotic dynamics in stock returns," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(2), November.
    9. Baek, Khung G. & Brock, William A., 1989. "A Nonparametric Test For Independence Of A Multivariate Time Series," ISU General Staff Papers 198912010800001205, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 1999. "Local Polynomial Estimation with a FARIMA-GARCH Error Process," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/08, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    11. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles & McMullan, Caroline, 2020. "The impact of industrial incidents on stock market volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Cho, Guedae & Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "Relative Agricultural Price Changes In Different Time Horizons," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    14. Umar, Muhammad & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Furqan, Mehreen, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility structure of equity returns: Evidence from an emerging market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 330-336.
    15. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    16. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2017. "Disturbances and complexity in volatility time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 38-42.
    17. Hao Chen & Qiulan Wan & Yurong Wang, 2014. "Refined Diebold-Mariano Test Methods for the Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasting Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-14, July.
    18. Tomanova, Lucie, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Foreign Trade in CEEC," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 267, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    19. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
    20. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2001. "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Exposures on Equity Asset Markets," Economics Series 94, Institute for Advanced Studies.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2003:i:17:p:70-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sofia Antunes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fecucpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.