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Spillover effects of the Venezuelan crisis: migration impacts in Colombia
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Spillover effects of the Venezuelan crisis: migration impacts in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • German Caruso
  • Christian Gomez Canon
  • Valerie Mueller

Abstract

In the wake of the Venezuelan crisis, Colombian migrants are returning to their place of birth. Since 2016, however, there has been a spike of immigration to Colombia attributable to inflows of the Venezuelan-born. Using high-frequency administrative data, we estimate the impacts of the recent labour supply shock–driven by the economic predicament in Venezuela–on the labour and poverty outcomes of native Colombians. We employ an instrumental variables approach to account for the selection of immigrants into locations with more or less desirable conditions. A 1 percentage point increase in immigration from Venezuela reduces informal sector wages by 10 percentage points in urban areas. As the crisis increased the fraction of migrants by 0.2 percentage points in 2017, we estimate urban wages decreased by a total of 2 percentage points. A dual-pronged approach is warranted to promote the economic assimilation of Venezuelans while protecting the job security of Colombians.

Suggested Citation

  • German Caruso & Christian Gomez Canon & Valerie Mueller, 2021. "Spillover effects of the Venezuelan crisis: migration impacts in Colombia," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 771-795.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:73:y:2021:i:2:p:771-795.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpz072
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. García-Suaza, Andrés & Mondragón-Mayo, Angie & Sarango-Iturralde, Alexander, 2024. "Occupational downgrading of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia: Do work permits Improve occupational mobility?," Documentos de Trabajo 21028, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2023. "Decomposing the impact of immigration on house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Germán Caruso & Inés Marcos & Ilan Noy, 2024. "Climate Changes Affect Human Capital," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 157-196, March.
    4. Duman, Anil, 2024. "The Diversity of Informal Employment: a survey of drivers, outcomes, and policies," OSF Preprints yg3t7, Center for Open Science.
    5. Hanbyul Ryu & Jayash Paudel, 2022. "Refugee Inflow and Labor Market Outcomes in Brazil: Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 75-96, March.
    6. Federico Maggio & Carlo Caporali, 2022. "Violence and migration: The role of police killings in the Venezuelan diaspora," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 04, Stata Users Group.
    7. Dávalos, María Eugenia & Ardila Vargas, Luz Karine & Garcia-Suaza, Andres, 2023. "Barriers to the Integration of Venezuelan Migrants and Refugees in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 20822, Universidad del Rosario.
    8. Edo, Anthony & Özgüzel, Cem, 2023. "The impact of immigration on the employment dynamics of European regions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Pulido, José & Varón, Alejandra, 2024. "Misallocation of the immigrant workforce: Aggregate productivity effects for the host country," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Ademir Rocha & Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Fernando Perobelli, 2022. "The New Economic Geography and labour emigration: Analysing Venezuela's hyperinflation episode," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 175-202, January.
    11. Lukas Delgado-Prieto, 2024. "Immigration, wages, and employment under informal labor markets," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-34, June.
    12. Zana Vathi & Russell King & Barak Kalir, 2023. "Editorial Introduction: The Shifting Geopolitics of Return Migration and Reintegration," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 369-385, March.
    13. Zanoni, Wladimir & Díaz, Lina, 2024. "Discrimination against migrants and its determinants: Evidence from a Multi-Purpose Field Experiment in the Housing Rental Market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    14. Kadigo, Mark Marvin & Maystadt, Jean-Francois, 2023. "How to cope with a refugee population? Evidence from Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    15. Federico Maggio & Carlo Caporali, 2022. "Violence and Migration. The Role of Police Killings in the Venezuelan Diaspora," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS92, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    16. Yijing Chen & Claudia Rafful & Mercedes Mercado & Lindsey Carte & Sonia Morales-Miranda & Judeline Cheristil & Teresita Rocha-Jiménez, 2022. "Hoping for a Better Future during COVID-19: How Migration Plans Are Protective of Depressive Symptoms for Haitian Migrants Living in Chile," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-15, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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