(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Business Cycles in Developing Economies: The Case of Tunisia
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0304.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business Cycles in Developing Economies: The Case of Tunisia

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to establish stylized facts for the small developing economy of Tunisia using time series techniques over the period 1963-93. This is achieved by testing for the macroeconomic variables driving the business cycle. The paper extends the vector-autoregression (VAR) approach adopted by Blanchard and Quah (1989) and by Gali (1992), which aliows only for short-term analysis, into a vector error-correction approach (VEC) that allows for both the short-term and the long-term analysis of the business cycle. Using multivariate cointegration techniques, the analysis shows that: (i) in the short-run real GDP. has little persistence, so that an innovation at its level generates only transitory effects, with inflation being the only variable that Granger-causes the business cycle; (ii) in the long-run GDP cointegrates with money supply, the exchange rate and inflation rate with three common stochastic trends driving the system towards a stationary, long-run equilibrium state; and (iii) money supply and the exchange rate are neutral in the short-run but have a significant effect on the business cycle in the long-run. JEL Classification: E32, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Ghali , Khalifa H., 1998. "Business Cycles in Developing Economies: The Case of Tunisia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 51(2), pages 171-188.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.