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Exploiting the Chaos: Terrorist Target Choice Following Natural Disasters
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Exploiting the Chaos: Terrorist Target Choice Following Natural Disasters

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  • Claude Berrebi
  • Jordan Ostwald

Abstract

This article explores the differences between transnational and domestic terrorism, further differentiating by private versus government targets, to estimate the effect of exogenous catastrophic shocks on a country's level of domestic and transnational terrorism. The empirical analysis uses detailed data on terrorism, natural disasters, and other relevant controls for 176 countries from 1970–2007 to illuminate several key disparities in a postdisaster target choice of terrorists. The results indicate that natural disasters incite both transnational and domestic terrorism; however, evidence is found for dissimilar motivations between the two. While both types of terrorism increase after disasters, transnational attacks against the government increase immediately following the disaster, suggesting an impetus to exploit weakened “hard” targets during the chaos. Conversely, domestic terrorism against the government takes longer to manifest, suggesting a period of time for which the public recovers and assesses the government's response.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Berrebi & Jordan Ostwald, 2013. "Exploiting the Chaos: Terrorist Target Choice Following Natural Disasters," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 793-811, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:79:y:2013:i:4:p:793-811
    DOI: 10.4284/0038-4038-2012.268
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    2. Rizvi, Syed Muhammad All-e-Raza & Véganzonès-Varoudakis, Marie-Ange, 2023. "Institutional determinants of internal conflicts in fragile developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 910-934.
    3. Jansesberger, Viktoria & Spilker, Gabriele, 2024. "Silencing dissent in the wake of catastrophe? An examination of the repression dynamics following weather-related rapid-onset events in autocracies," Working Papers 27, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
    4. Irshad Hira & Taib Hasniza Mohd & Hussain Haroon & Hussain Rana Yassir, 2023. "Conventional and Islamic Equity Market Reaction Towards Terrorism: Evidence Based on Target Types, Location and Islamic Calendar Months," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 33(4), pages 70-116, December.

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