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Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries
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Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries

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  • Bank for International Settlements

Abstract

The papers on the following pages were presented and discussed at a workshop on "Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries", held at the BIS on 15-16 January 2001. It was the first time that the BIS had arranged a meeting of this kind and twelve central banks from emerging market countries had accepted to participate in the workshop with papers or as discussants. Four papers by the BIS staff are also included in this volume. The workshop had three sessions on specific modelling aspects, with the first focusing on modelling the inflation process in emerging market countries; the second on estimating the impact of asset prices and the pass-through of exchange rate movements; and a third devoted to modelling the transmission mechanism. In a final session, participants discussed policy implications and areas of future work. Four main conclusions emerged from the papers and the discussion. First, lack of reliable data or of data series with sufficient length often force researchers to rely on small models rather than large, fully specified macro-models. Second, in virtually all countries, a major problem is finding a robust link between the output gap and the rate of inflation. Third, several papers found a marked decline in the pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic prices, though some uncertainty remains as to the sustainability of the change. Fourth, several papers also found a surprisingly large influence of administered prices on overall inflation, raising concerns over the ability of central banks to tightly control inflation.

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  • Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 08.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbps:08
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    1. Barros, Geraldo Sant’Ana de Camargo & Carrara, Aniela Fagundes & Castro, Nicole Rennó & Silva, Adriana Ferreira, 2022. "Agriculture and inflation: Expected and unexpected shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 178-188.
    2. Jhonatan Portilla & Gabriel Rodríguez & Paul Castillo B., 2022. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in Peru: An Empirical Application Using a Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Model [Metas de Inflación en Una Economía Dolarizada: La Experencia Del Perú]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 68(1), pages 98-126.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
    4. Ashima Goyal & Sritama Ray, 2022. "Exploring correlations between aggregate demand and supply shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
    6. Ozgur ASLAN & H. Levent KORAP, 2007. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In An Open Economy Framework: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, May.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew, 2002. "Unobservable-Components Estimates of Output Gaps in Five Asian Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3393, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Bohdan Klos & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa Wrobel, 2005. "Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland," NBP Working Papers 31, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    9. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Anca Podpiera & Branislav Saxa, 2013. "What We Know About Monetary Policy Transmission in the Czech Republic: Collection of Empirical Results," Research and Policy Notes 2013/01, Czech National Bank.
    10. Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2016. "Outside the Band: Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2016/129, International Monetary Fund.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/175, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Yevgeny V. BALATSKY & Natalya A. YEKIMOVA & Maksim A. YUREVICH, 2018. "Non-Monetary Factors in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: Revision of the Inflation Management Strategy," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 9(5), pages 26-39, October.
    14. Patnaik, Ila & Mittal, Shalini & Pandey, Radhika, 2019. "Examining the trade-off between price and financial stability in India," Working Papers 19/248, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    15. Alex Contreras & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Regalado, 2017. "Real dollarization and monetary policy in Peru," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Carrera, César, 2011. "El canal del crédito bancario en el Perú: Evidencia y mecanismo de transmisión," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 63-82.
    17. Jimborean, Ramona, 2009. "The role of banks in the monetary policy transmission in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 360-375, December.

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