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GDP and convergence in modern times
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GDP and convergence in modern times

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  • Emanuele Felice

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

In this chapter I discuss historical estimates of GDP at both the national and the regional level, and their application for assessing economic performance in modern times. Having been invented in (and conceived for) industrial capitalist societies, GDP has stronger informative power in those contexts where industry and services, and market exchange, retain the lion’s share of production. In modern times, when comparing the series available for different countries, there are three major methodological problems to be acknowledged and possibly addressed: the dissimilarity of the quantity series and related proxies; deflation through purchasing power parities distant in time; and the differences in the base year used to construct GDP constant price (Laspeyres) indices (the latter issue may be less widely recognized, but it may have a remarkable impact). The way the estimates are constructed also has a bearing upon the statistical tools and models we should use to interpret them; owing to the lack of reliable long-run series, cross-sectional techniques are often preferable to time series analysis; provided we have reliable estimates, growth accounting - decomposing GDP growth into productivity and industry mix effects - may provide important clues about the choice between theoretical approaches; not least for the quality of our data, cross-country convergence models based on conditioning variables should always be supplemented by historical information from qualitative sources and case studies. More generally, cliometricians should prove themselves capable of adapting their models to different historical contexts and relativizing findings to the limits of their estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Felice, 2014. "GDP and convergence in modern times," Working Papers 01-14, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:01-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tapas MISHRA & Mamata PARHI & Claude DIEBOLT, 2014. "Evolutionary efficiency and distributive effects of inertia in cross-country life-satisfaction," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 49, pages 1335-1356, Août.
    2. Claude Diebolt & Faustine Perrin, 2016. "Growth Theories," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 1, pages 177-195, Springer.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; convergence; purchasing power parity; neoclassical school; endogenous growth; new economic geography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • N01 - Economic History - - General - - - Development of the Discipline: Historiographical; Sources and Methods
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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