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013 Outlook of the U.S. and World Corn and Soybean Industries, 2012-202
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013 Outlook of the U.S. and World Corn and Soybean Industries, 2012-202

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  • Taylor, Richard D.
  • Koo, Won W.

Abstract

This report evaluates the United States and world corn and soybean markets for the 2013-2022 period using the Global Corn and Soybean Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Corn-based ethanol production has influenced thenUnited States corn industry. As long as the production of corn-based ethanol remains strong, corn prices will likely remain at a level higher than the long term average. However, changes in the Federal fuel mandates could significantly impact the world corn market. Under the current assumptions in the model, corn price is expected to remain in a range between $4.30 and $6.50 per bushel over the 2013-2022 period. Chinese soybean import is a leading factor influencing the world soybean market. China currently imports 66% of soybean trade in the world market, and that is expected to increase to about 70% by 2022. Major exporters will continue to be the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. However both Brazil and Argentina could increase exports, while U.S. exports will remain at the current level. Soybean prices are expected to remain near $12.00/bushel over the time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Richard D. & Koo, Won W., 2013. "013 Outlook of the U.S. and World Corn and Soybean Industries, 2012-202," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 157670, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nddaae:157670
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.157670
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/157670/files/AAE713.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benirschka, Martin & Koo, Won W., 1995. "World Wheat Policy Simulation Model: Description and Computer Program Documentation," Agricultural Economics Reports 23333, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    2. Nerlove, Marc, 1972. "Lags in Economic Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 221-251, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saghaian, Sayed & Nemati, Mehdi & Walters, Cory & Chen, Bo, 2018. "Asymmetric Price Volatility Transmission between U.S. Biofuel, Corn, and Oil Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(1), January.
    2. Walters, Cory, 2018. "Price Volatility Transmission between U.S. Biofuel, Corn, and Oil Markets," Cornhusker Economics 307037, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    3. Saghaian, Sayed H. & Nemati, Mehdi & Walters, Cory G. & Chen, Bo, 2017. "Asymmetric Price Volatility Interaction between U.S. Food and Energy Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258240, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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