(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Probabilistic Price Forecasts Based On Commodity Option Values
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/umaesp/14030.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this paper

Probabilistic Price Forecasts Based On Commodity Option Values

Author

Listed:
  • King, Robert P.
  • Fackler, Paul L.

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • King, Robert P. & Fackler, Paul L., 1985. "Probabilistic Price Forecasts Based On Commodity Option Values," Staff Papers 14030, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:umaesp:14030
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.14030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14030/files/p85-28.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.14030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    2. Latane, Henry A & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1976. "Standard Deviations of Stock Price Ratios Implied in Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 369-381, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. King, Robert P. & Black, J. Roy & Benson, Fred J. & Pavkov, Patti A., 1988. "The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator Microcomputer Program," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 1-7, December.
    2. King, Robert P., 1985. "A Decision Support System For Commodity Marketing Management," Staff Papers 13827, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    3. Curtis, Charles E., Jr. & Carriker, Gordon L., 1988. "Estimating Implied Volatility Directly from "Nearest-to-the-Money" Commodity Option Premiums," Working Papers 116875, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Ford, Stephen A. & Ford, Beth Pride & Spreen, Thomas H., 1995. "Evaluation of Alternative Risk Specifications in Farm Programming Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 25-35, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F. Gonzalez Miranda & N. Burgess, 1997. "Modelling market volatilities: the neural network perspective," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 137-157.
    2. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    3. Ben Hunt, 1991. "A Forecasting Model of Option Pricing Volatility," Working Paper Series 10, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    5. Davidson, Wallace N. & Kim, Jin Kyoung & Ors, Evren & Szakmary, Andrew, 2001. "Using implied volatility on options to measure the relation between asset returns and variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1245-1269, July.
    6. Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H. & Forster, D. Lynn, 1990. "Nonstationarity Of Soybean Futures Price Distributions: Option-Based Evidence," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270920, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Fackler, Paul L. & King, Robert P., 1987. "The Evaluation of Probability Distributions with Special Emphasis on Price Distributions Derived from Option Premiums," Regional Research Projects > 1987: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 22-25, 1987, San Antonio, Texas 272343, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    8. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Kneafsey, Devin P. & Claessens, Stijn & DEC, 1993. "Forecasting volatility in commodity markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1226, The World Bank.
    9. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E., 2000. "Market risk and the concept of fundamental volatility: Measuring volatility across asset and derivative markets and testing for the impact of derivatives markets on financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 759-785, May.
    11. Viteva, Svetlana & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia V. & Campbell, Kevin, 2014. "The forecasting accuracy of implied volatility from ECX carbon options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 475-484.
    12. Bent Jesper Christensen & Charlotte Strunk Hansen, 2002. "New evidence on the implied-realized volatility relation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 187-205, June.
    13. Corrado, Charles J. & Miller, Thomas Jr., 1996. "A note on a simple, accurate formula to compute implied standard deviations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 595-603, April.
    14. Chan, Kam C. & Cheng, Louis T. W. & Lung, Peter P., 2003. "Moneyness and the response of the implied volatilities to price changes: The empirical evidence from HSI options," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 527-553, September.
    15. José R. Aragonés & Carlos Blanco & Pablo García Estévez, 2007. "Neural network volatility forecasts," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3‐4), pages 107-121, July.
    16. Cifarelli, giulio, 2002. "The information content of implied volatilities of options on eurodeposit futures traded on the LIFFE: is there long memory?," MPRA Paper 28538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Brown, C. A. & Taylor, S. D., 1997. "A test of the Asay model for pricing options on the SPI futures contract," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 579-594, December.
    18. Christiansen, Charlotte & Strunk Hansen, Charlotte, 2000. "Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model," Finance Working Papers 00-1, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    19. Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 1999. "Volatility forecasting in the framework of the option expiry cycle," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 73-94.
    20. Dan Stefanica & Radoš Radoičić, 2017. "An Explicit Implied Volatility Formula," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(07), pages 1-32, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:umaesp:14030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/daumnus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.