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Un modelo para el sistema de pensiones en Mexico.Diagnostico y recomendaciones
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Un modelo para el sistema de pensiones en Mexico.Diagnostico y recomendaciones

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Alonso
  • Carmen Hoyo
  • David Tuesta

Abstract

La reforma del sistema de pensiones del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) efectuada en 1997 permitio acotar el creciente costo fiscal que significaba el anterior esquema de reparto. A 16 anos de su creacion, el Sistema de Ahorro para el Retiro (SAR) ha tenido efectos macroeconomicos favorables para Mexico, ya que ha incrementado significativamente el ahorro financiero y fomentado el desarrollo de los mercados financieros locales. Sin embargo, la cobertura del sistema de pensiones no ha evolucionado como se esperaba debido a la alta tasa de informalidad en el mercado de trabajo. Ademas, las tasas de reemplazo proyectadas de las pensiones por Vejez en el sistema de contribucion definida seran bajas, debido a problemas exogenos al sistema de pensiones, como las bajas tasas de aportacion y bajas densidades de cotizacion. El principal objetivo de este estudio es presentar los resultados de un modelo de proyeccion macroeconomica y actuarial para estimar la cobertura laboral y pensionaria, asi como las tasas de reemplazo previstas para el periodo 2012-2050, con base en la informacion proporcionada por la Comision Nacional del Sistema de Ahorro para el Retiro y Afore Bancomer. Los resultados revelan el poco halagueno escenario de que el sistema de pensiones tiene, y seguira teniendo a largo plazo, mejoras limitadas en las tasas de cobertura. La posibilidad de obtener pensiones adecuadas quedara restringida a aquellos que tengan condiciones socioeconomicas con un historial laboral prolongado y que, por consiguiente, podran aportar a sus cuentas individuales. Tomando en cuenta este escenario de proyecciones de referencia, simulamos los efectos previstos de aplicar una serie de propuestas con el objetivo de incrementar la cobertura y las tasas de reemplazo, asi como incentivar el ahorro voluntario para el retiro.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Alonso & Carmen Hoyo & David Tuesta, 2014. "Un modelo para el sistema de pensiones en Mexico.Diagnostico y recomendaciones," Working Papers 1407, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1407
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bernal, Noelia & Olivera, Javier, 2020. "Choice of pension management fees and effects on pension wealth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 539-568.
    2. Ianina Rossi, 2018. "Systematic Determinants of Pensions in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0818, Department of Economics - dECON.
    3. Carmen Hoyo & David Tuesta, 2013. "Financiando la jubilacion con activos inmobiliarios: un analisis de caso para Mexico," Working Papers 1334, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pensiones; contribucion definida; tasas de reemplazo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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