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Navigating by falling stars: monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates
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Navigating by falling stars: monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates

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  • Rodolfo G. Campos
  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
  • Galo Nuño Barrau
  • Peter Paz

Abstract

We study a new type of monetary-fiscal interaction in a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with a fiscal block. Due to household heterogeneity, the stock of public debt affects the natural interest rate, forcing the central bank to adapt its monetary policy rule to the fiscal stance to guarantee that inflation remains at its target. There is, however, a minimum level of debt below which the steady-state inflation deviates from its target due to the zero lower bound on nominal rates. We analyze the response to a debt-financed fiscal expansion and quantify the impact of different timings in the adaptation of the monetary policy rule, as well as the performance of alternative monetary policy rules that do not require an assessment of the natural rates. We validate our findings with a series of empirical estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño Barrau & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by falling stars: monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates," BIS Working Papers 1172, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1172
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HANK models; natural rates; fiscal shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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