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Trade and worker deskilling
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Trade and worker deskilling

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Costa
  • Swati Dhingra
  • Stephen Machin

Abstract

This paper presents new evidence on international trade and worker outcomes. It examines a big world event that produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union, the value of sterling plummeted. It recorded the biggest depreciation that has occurred in any of the world's four major currencies since the collapse of Bretton Woods. Exploiting this variation, the paper studies the impact of trade on wages and worker training. Wages and training fell for workers employed in sectors where the intermediate import price rose by more as a consequence of the sterling depreciation. Calibrating the estimated wage elasticity with respect to intermediate import prices to theory uncovers evidence of a production complementarity between workers and intermediate imports. This provides new direct evidence that, in the modern world of global value chains, it is changes in the cost of intermediate imports that act as a driver of the impact of globalization on worker welfare. The episode studied and the findings add to widely expressed, growing concerns about poor productivity performance relating to skills and to patterns of real wage stagnation that are plaguing contemporary labour markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Costa & Swati Dhingra & Stephen Machin, 2019. "Trade and worker deskilling," CEP Discussion Papers dp1622, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1622
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    Cited by:

    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    3. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2019. "Exchange rates and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit," CEP Discussion Papers dp1667, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Rachel Griffith & Peter Levell & Agnes Norris Keiller, 2021. "Potential Consequences of Post‐Brexit Trade Barriers for Earnings Inequality in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 839-862, October.
    5. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2023. "Design-based identification with formula instruments: A review," CeMMAP working papers 12/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Beata Javorcik & Ben Kett & Layla O'Kane, 2019. "The Brexit Vote and Labour Demand: Evidence from Online Job Postings," Economics Series Working Papers 878, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    8. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    9. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "Expecting Brexit," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 495-519, August.
    10. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence Van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2024. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 413-458, February.
    11. Facundo Albornoz & Jake Bradley & Silvia Sonderegger, 2020. "The Brexit referendum and the rise in hate crime; conforming to the new norm," Discussion Papers 2020-12, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    12. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-332, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    13. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "The Brexit Vote, Inflation And U.K. Living Standards," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 63-93, February.
    14. Ron Hira, 2020. "Outsourcing: A Case of Shared Mental Models in Conflict," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 410-435, August.
    15. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    16. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Agnes Norris Keiller, 2024. "Brexit and investment," CEP Discussion Papers dp2025, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. Humlum, Anders & Munch, Jakob R. & Rasmussen, Mette, 2023. "What Works for the Unemployed? Evidence from Quasi-Random Caseworker Assignments," IZA Discussion Papers 16033, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Magli, Martina, 2022. "The Spillover Effect of Services Offshoring on Local Labour Markets," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 351, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    20. Borusyak, Kirill & Hull, Peter, 2020. "Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 15319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Josh De Lyon & Swati Dhingra, 2021. "Real-time updates on the UK economy: trends, expectations and implications from business survey data," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-026, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Andrew Mountford & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2023. "‘Good jobs’, training and skilled immigration," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 851-881, July.
    23. Martina Magli, 2022. "The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets," CEP Discussion Papers dp1892, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    24. Javorcik, Beata & Kett, Ben & Stapleton, Katherine & O'Kane, Layla, 2019. "Unravelling Trade Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote," CEPR Discussion Papers 14222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Magli, Martina, 2022. "The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118048, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate depreciation; trade; wages; training; deskilling; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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