(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10278.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Michael Bauer
  • Cristian Proistosescu
  • Gernot Wagner

Abstract

We develop a financial-economic model for carbon pricing with an explicit representation of decision making under risk and uncertainty that is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We find that this approach provides economic support for the warming targets in the Paris Agreement across a variety of specifications. We show that risk associated with high damages in the long term leads to stringent mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions in the near term. Our results provide insight into how a systematic incorporation of climate-related risk influences ‘optimal’ emissions abatement pathways.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10278.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl & Danny Yagan, 2009. "Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 147-174, Fall.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    3. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    4. Hunt Allcott & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2015. "Evaluating Behaviorally Motivated Policy: Experimental Evidence from the Lightbulb Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2501-2538, August.
    5. Simon Dietz & Frederick van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai & Frank Venmans, 2021. "Are Economists Getting Climate Dynamics Right and Does It Matter?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(5), pages 895-921.
    6. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    7. Lawrence Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, 2008. "Policymaking for posterity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 115-140, December.
    8. Martin C. Hänsel & Moritz A. Drupp & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Frikk Nesje & Christian Azar & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Thomas Sterner, 2020. "Climate economics support for the UN climate targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 781-789, August.
    9. Marshall Burke & W. Matthew Davis & Noah S. Diffenbaugh, 2018. "Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7706), pages 549-553, May.
    10. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2018. "Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-41.
    12. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 860-872, September.
    13. Jesse D. Jenkins & Valerie J. Karplus, 2016. "Carbon pricing under binding political constraints," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-44, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Yongyang Cai & Thomas S. Lontzek, 2019. "The Social Cost of Carbon with Economic and Climate Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2684-2734.
    15. Schroyen, Fred & Aarbu, Karl Ove, 2017. "Attitudes towards large income risk in welfare states: an international comparison," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 20/2017, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    16. Jun’ya Takakura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Naota Hanasaki & Tomoko Hasegawa & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Yasushi Honda & Toshichika Iizumi & Naoko Kumano & Chan Park & Zhihong Shen & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Makoto, 2019. "Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(10), pages 737-741, October.
    17. Richard G. Newell & William A. Pizer & Brian C. Prest, 2022. "A Discounting Rule for the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(5), pages 1017-1046.
    18. Steven K. Rose & Delavane B. Diaz & Geoffrey J. Blanford, 2017. "Understanding The Social Cost Of Carbon: A Model Diagnostic And Inter-Comparison Study," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-28, May.
    19. M. Ha-Duong & M. J. Grubb & J.-C. Hourcade, 1997. "Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement," Nature, Nature, vol. 390(6657), pages 270-273, November.
    20. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    21. Jaffe, Adam B. & Stavins, Robert N., 1994. "The energy paradox and the diffusion of conservation technology," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 91-122, May.
    22. Martin L. Weitzman, 2012. "GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(2), pages 221-244, March.
    23. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Gernot Wagner & Tomas Kåberger & Susanna Olai & Michael Oppenheimer & Katherine Rittenhouse & Thomas Sterner, 2015. "Energy policy: Push renewables to spur carbon pricing," Nature, Nature, vol. 525(7567), pages 27-29, September.
    25. Lawrence Goulder, 1995. "Environmental taxation and the double dividend: A reader's guide," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 2(2), pages 157-183, August.
    26. Frances C. Moore & Delavane B. Diaz, 2015. "Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 127-131, February.
    27. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    28. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    29. William W. Hogan & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1991. "Productivity Trends and the Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 67-86.
    30. Nicholas Stern, 2013. "The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 838-859, September.
    31. Jun’ya Takakura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Naota Hanasaki & Tomoko Hasegawa & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Yasushi Honda & Toshichika Iizumi & Naoko Kumano & Chan Park & Zhihong Shen & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Makoto, 2019. "Publisher Correction: Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 894-894, November.
    32. Tobias S. Schmidt & Sebastian Sewerin, 2017. "Technology as a driver of climate and energy politics," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 1-3, June.
    33. Richels, Richard G. & Blanford, Geoffrey J., 2008. "The value of technological advance in decarbonizing the U.S. economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2930-2946, November.
    34. James Rising & Marco Tedesco & Franziska Piontek & David A. Stainforth, 2022. "The missing risks of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 643-651, October.
    35. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    36. Derek Lemoine & Ivan Rudik, 2017. "Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 117-142, October.
    37. Peter J. Irvine & Ben Kravitz & Mark G. Lawrence & Helene Muri, 2016. "An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(6), pages 815-833, November.
    38. Hope, Chris & Anderson, John & Wenman, Paul, 1993. "Policy analysis of the greenhouse effect : An application of the PAGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 327-338, March.
    39. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    40. Derek Lemoine & Ivan Rudik, 2017. "Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 117-142, October.
    41. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen & Harrison Hong, 2020. "Pricing Uncertainty Induced by Climate Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1024-1066.
    42. Frank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton & Ramón Bueno, 2013. "Epstein–Zin Utility in DICE: Is Risk Aversion Irrelevant to Climate Policy?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(1), pages 73-84, September.
    43. Frances C. Moore & Delavane B. Diaz, 2015. "Erratum: Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 280-280, March.
    44. Kenneth Gillingham & James H. Stock, 2018. "The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 53-72, Fall.
    45. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    46. Jesse D. Jenkins & Valerie J. Karplus, 2016. "Carbon pricing under binding political constraints," WIDER Working Paper Series 044, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2021. "Social Cost of Carbon Under Stochastic Tipping Points," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 709-737, April.
    5. Campiglio, Emanuele & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2022. "Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117609, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Dominika Czyz & Karolina Safarzynska, 2023. "Catastrophic Damages and the Optimal Carbon Tax Under Loss Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(2), pages 303-340, June.
    7. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    8. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    9. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2022. "Prices and Taxes in a Ramsey Climate Policy Model under Heterogeneous Beliefs and Ambiguity," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-56, October.
    10. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Hambel, Christoph & Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2021. "The social cost of carbon in a non-cooperative world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    13. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    14. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    15. Christoph Hambel & Holger Kraft & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2024. "Asset Diversification Versus Climate Action," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1323-1355, August.
    16. Christian Azar & Jorge García Martín & Daniel JA. Johansson & Thomas Sterner, 2023. "The social cost of methane," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-22, June.
    17. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2021. "Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium: Temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    19. Svenn Jensen & Christian P. Traeger & Christian Träger, 2021. "Pricing Climate Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 9196, CESifo.
    20. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate risk; asset pricing; cost of carbon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.