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The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates
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The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates

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  • Michael Clemens

Abstract

Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants’ skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cash-flow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with limited precision and transparency. A simple adjustment greatly reduces bias in the most influential and precise estimates: conservatively accounting for capital taxes paid by the employers of immigrant labor. The adjustment is required by firms’ profit-maximizing behavior, unconnected to general equilibrium effects. Adjusted estimates of the positive net fiscal impact of average recent U.S. immigrants rise by a factor of 3.2, with a much shallower education gradient. They are positive even for an average recent immigrant with less than high school education, whose presence causes a present-value subsidy of at least $128,000 to all other taxpayers collectively.

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  • Michael Clemens, 2021. "The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates," CESifo Working Paper Series 9464, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9464
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    Keywords

    immigration; fiscal; budget; budgetary; tax revenue; benefits; taxes; deficit; surplus; gain; contribution; welfare; social security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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