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Credible Forward Guidance
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Credible Forward Guidance

Author

Listed:
  • Taisuke Nakata

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Takeki Sunakawa

    (Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

How can the central bank credibly implement a "lower-for-longer" strategy? To answer this question, we analyze credible forward guidance policies in a sticky-price model with an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates by solving a series of optimal sustainable policy problems indexed by the duration of reputational loss. Lower-for-longer policies - while effective in stimulating the economy at the ELB - are potentially time-inconsistent, as the associated overheating of the economy in the aftermath of a crisis is undesirable ex post. However, if reneging on a lower-for-longer promise leads to a loss of reputation and prevents the central bank from effectively using lower-for-longer policies in future crises, these policies can be time-consistent. We fi nd that, even without an explicit commitment technology, the central bank can still credibly keep the policy rate at the ELB for an extended period - though not as extended under the optimal commitment policy - and meaningfully mitigate the adverse effects of the ELB constraint on economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Taisuke Nakata & Takeki Sunakawa, 2020. "Credible Forward Guidance," CARF F-Series CARF-F-484, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf484
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew T. Levin & Arunima Sinha, 2020. "Limitations on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Forward Guidance in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cole, Stephen J. & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2023. "The effect of central bank credibility on forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 532-570, March.
    3. Hiroyuki Kubota & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy in Japan: An Analysis Using Interest Rate Futures Surprises," CARF F-Series CARF-F-555, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Fernando M. Duarte & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Leonardo Melosi & Taisuke Nakata, 2020. "Strengthening the FOMC’s Framework in View of the Effective Lower Bound and Some Considerations Related to Time-Inconsistent Strategies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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