(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
The impact of lowering the payroll tax on informality in Colombia
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000123/015212.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of lowering the payroll tax on informality in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Fernández
  • Leonardo Villar

Abstract

The Colombian government recently reformed the tax law by reducing payroll contributions from 29.5% to 16% and substituting them with a profit tax. The law was passed in December 2012, and two years later the informality rate in the 13 main metropolitan areas diminished from 56% to 51% in December 2014 (using the legal definition of informality). In the whole survey the reduction was a little less pronounced, going from 68% to 64%. This period was also characterized by high, yet also diminishing growth rates; changes in the tax rates, and increasing real minimum wages. It is of the most interest to know how much of this reduction was due to the tax reform. This paper performs this task using a Matching and Difference in Differences methodology. According to the results, the tax reform reduced the informality rate, of the workers affected by the reform in the 13 main metropolitan areas, between 4,3 and 6,8 p.p. which translated in a reduction of the informality rate between 2,0 and 3,1 p.p. given that the treated population was only 45% of the working population of the country in 2012. The impact over the whole survey was between 4,1 and 6,7 which translates into 1,2 to 2,2 p.p. impact on the informality rate of the whole country. Similar results were found using the firm definition of informality. The reform affected mostly salaried workers and employers, males between 25 and 50 years old and workers with low levels of education.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Fernández & Leonardo Villar, 2016. "The impact of lowering the payroll tax on informality in Colombia," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 15212, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000123:015212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/3300
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2004. "Analyzing the effect of dynamically assigned treatments using duration models, binary treatment models, and panel data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 5-20, January.
    2. World Bank, 2009. "Estimating the Impact of Labor Taxes on Employment and the Balances of the Social Insurance Funds in Turkey," World Bank Publications - Reports 28211, The World Bank Group.
    3. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    4. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2009. "Alternative Approaches to Evaluation in Empirical Microeconomics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(3).
    5. Annette Bergemann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Stefan Speckesser, 2009. "Evaluating the dynamic employment effects of training programs in East Germany using conditional difference-in-differences," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 797-823.
    6. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Evaluating the Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Program," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 569-606, June.
    7. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    8. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    9. David H. Autor, 2003. "Outsourcing at Will: The Contribution of Unjust Dismissal Doctrine to the Growth of Employment Outsourcing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-42, January.
    10. Juan M. Villa, 2016. "diff: Simplifying the estimation of difference-in-differences treatment effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(1), pages 52-71, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sansone, Dario, 2019. "Pink work: Same-sex marriage, employment and discrimination," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    2. Lechner, Michael, 2011. "The Estimation of Causal Effects by Difference-in-Difference Methods," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 165-224, November.
    3. Schumann, Mathias, 2017. "The effects of minimum wages on firm-financed apprenticeship training," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 163-181.
    4. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Is Export Promotion Effective in Developing Countries? Firm-Level Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Exports," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 36763, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    6. Gudibande, Rohan Ravindra & Jacob, Arun, 2020. "Minimum wages for domestic workers: impact evaluation of the Indian experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo & Pablo M. Garcia, 2012. "Public programmes to promote firms’ exports in developing countries: are there heterogeneous effects by size categories?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 471-491, February.
    8. Christian Volpe Martincus, 2010. "Odyssey in International Markets: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Export Promotion in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 16458, February.
    9. Bounie, David & Camara, Youssouf, 2020. "Card-sales response to merchant contactless payment acceptance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Jones A.M & Rice N, 2009. "Econometric Evaluation of Health Policies," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 09/09, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo, 2008. "Is export promotion effective in developing countries? Firm-level evidence on the intensive and the extensive margins of exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 89-106, September.
    12. Burgess, Simon & Wilson, Deborah & Worth, Jack, 2013. "A natural experiment in school accountability: The impact of school performance information on pupil progress," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 57-67.
    13. Dettmann, Eva & Giebler, Alexander & Weyh, Antje, 2020. "Flexpaneldid: A Stata toolbox for causal analysis with varying treatment time and duration," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Guglielmo Barone & Litterio Mirenda & Sauro Mocetti, 2021. "Losing My Connection: The Dark Side of Bank–Firm Interlocking Directorates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 474-498, April.
    15. Francesca Sgobbi & Fátima Suleman, 2015. "The Value of Transferable Skills," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(4), pages 378-399, September.
    16. Stephan Thomsen, 2009. "Job Search Assistance Programs in Europe: Evaluation Methods and Recent Empirical Findings," FEMM Working Papers 09018, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    17. David Bounie & Youssouf Camara, 2020. "Card-Sales Response to Merchant Contactless Payment Acceptance," Post-Print hal-02296302, HAL.
    18. Dettmann, E. & Becker, C. & Schmeißer, C., 2011. "Distance functions for matching in small samples," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 1942-1960, May.
    19. Alexander Hijzen & Sébastien Jean & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "The effects at home of initiating production abroad: evidence from matched French firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 457-483, September.
    20. Jan Fałkowski & Maciej Jakubowski & Paweł Strawiński, 2014. "Returns from income strategies in rural Poland," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(1), pages 139-178, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informalidad; Reformas Tributarias; Diferencias en Diferencias; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000123:015212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Patricia Monroy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedesco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.