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The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures
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The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures

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  • Krueger, Dirk
  • Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola
  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Popova, Irina

Abstract

Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the long-term impact of school closures during the Corona crisis on children affected at different ages and coming from households with different parental characteristics. In the model, public investment through schooling is combined with parental time and resource investments in the production of child human capital at different stages in the children's development process. We quantitatively characterize both the long-term earnings consequences on children from a Covid-19 induced loss of schooling, as well as the associated welfare losses. Due to self-productivity in the human capital production function, skill attainment at a younger stage of the life cycle raises skill attainment at later stages, and thus younger children are hurt more by the school closures than older children. We find that parental reactions reduce the negative impact of the school closures, but do not fully offset it. The negative impact of the crisis on children's welfare is especially severe for those with parents with low educational attainment and low assets. The school closures themselves are primarily responsible for the negative impact of the Covid-19 shock on the long-run welfare of the children, with the pandemic-induced income shock to parents playing a secondary role.

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  • Krueger, Dirk & Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola & Ludwig, Alexander & Popova, Irina, 2020. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," CEPR Discussion Papers 15227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15227
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; School closures; Inequality; Intergenerational persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

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