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The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty
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The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty

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  • Poilly, Céline
  • Anna, Beliansk
  • Eyquem, Aurélien

Abstract

Higher uncertainty about government spending generates a persistent decline in the economic activity in the Euro Area. This paper emphasizes the transmission channels explaining this empirical fact. First, a Stochastic Volatility model is estimated on European government consumption to build a measure of government spending uncertainty. Plugging this measure into a SVAR model, we stress that government spending uncertainty shocks have recessionary, persistent and humped-shaped effects. Second, we develop a New Keynesian model with financial frictions applying to a portfolio of equity and long-term government bonds. We argue that a portfolio effect -- resulting from the imperfect substitutability among both assets -- acts as a critical amplifier of the usual transmission channels.

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  • Poilly, Céline & Anna, Beliansk & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2021. "The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 15894, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15894
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    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government spending uncertainty; stochastic volatility; Portfolio adjustment cost;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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