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Fundamentals vs. policies: can the US dollar’s dominance in global trade be dented?
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Fundamentals vs. policies: can the US dollar’s dominance in global trade be dented?

Author

Listed:
  • Georgios Georgiadis

    (European Central Bank)

  • Helena Le Mezo

    (European Central Bank)

  • Arnaud Mehl

    (European Central Bank & CEPR)

  • Cedric Tille

    (Geneva Graduate Institute & CEPR)

Abstract

The US dollar plays a dominant role in the invoicing of international trade, albeit not an exclusive one as more than half of global trade is invoiced in other currencies. Of particular interest are the euro, with a large role, and the renminbi, with a rising role. These two currencies are well suited to contrast the roles of economic fundamentals and policies, as European policy makers have taken a neutral stance in contrast to the promotion of the international role of the renminbi by the Chinese authorities. We assess the drivers of invoicing using the most recent and comprehensive data set for 115 countries over 1999-2019. We find that standard mechanisms that foster use of a large economy’s currency predicted by theory—i.e. strategic complementarities in price setting and integration in cross-border value chains—underpin use of the dollar and the euro for trade with the United States and the euro area. These mechanisms also support the role of the dollar, but not the euro, in trade between non-US and non-euro area countries, making the dollar the globally dominant invoicing currency. Fundamentals and policies have played a contrasted role for the use of the renminbi. We find that China’s integration into global trade has further strengthened the dominant status of the dollar at the expense of the euro. At the same time, the establishment of currency swap lines by the People’s Bank of China has been associated with increases in renminbi invoicing, with an adverse effect on dollar use that is larger than for the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Georgiadis & Helena Le Mezo & Arnaud Mehl & Cedric Tille, 2021. "Fundamentals vs. policies: can the US dollar’s dominance in global trade be dented?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_028, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2021_28
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
    2. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2022. "Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1435-1493.
    3. Saleem Bahaj & Ricardo Reis, 2020. "Jumpstarting an International Currency," Discussion Papers 2015, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Batten, Jonathan A. & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2016. "The internationalisation of the RMB: New starts, jumps and tipping points," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    5. Belotti,Federico & Borin,Alessandro & Mancini,Michele, 2020. "icio : Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output Tables in Stata," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9156, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rogelio V. Mercado, Jr. & Ryan Jacildo & Sanchita Basu Das, 2022. "US Dollar Dominance in Asia's Trade Invoicing," Working Papers wp45, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    2. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parrága, Susana & Carvalho,, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    3. Boz, Emine & Casas, Camila & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gopinath, Gita & Le Mezo, Helena & Mehl, Arnaud & Nguyen, Tra, 2022. "Patterns of invoicing currency in global trade: New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Alina Iancu & Gareth Anderson & Sakai Ando & Ethan Boswell & Andrea Gamba & Shushanik Hakobyan & Lusine Lusinyan & Neil Meads & Yiqun Wu, 2022. "Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 879-915, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade invoicing; dominant currency paradigm; markets vs. policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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