(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2005452.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Ehrmann, Michael
  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Rigobon, Roberto

Abstract

The paper presents a framework for analyzing the degree of financial transmission between money, bond and equity markets and exchange rates within and between the United States and the euro area. We find that asset prices react strongest to other domestic asset price shocks, and that there are also substantial international spillovers, both within and across asset classes. The results underline the dominance of US markets as the main driver of global financial markets: US financial markets explain, on average, more than 25% of movements in euro area financial markets, whereas euro area markets account only for about 8% of US asset price changes. The international propagation of shocks is strengthened in times of recession, and has most likely changed in recent years: prior to EMU, the paper finds smaller international spillovers. JEL Classification: E44, F3, C5

Suggested Citation

  • Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Working Paper Series 452, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005452
    Note: 203739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp452.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Spillovers Across U.S. Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    5. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    6. Forbes, Kristin J. & Chinn, Menzie David, 2003. "A Decomposition Of Global Linkages In Financial Markets Over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4391b5w7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    8. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    9. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    10. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    11. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:3:p:309-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    13. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
    14. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
    15. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December.
    16. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting euro area variables with German pre-EMU data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 465-481.
    17. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    18. Cass, David & Pavlova, Anna, 2004. "On trees and logs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 41-83, May.
    19. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    20. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    21. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    22. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," Staff Working Papers 04-42, Bank of Canada.
    23. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    24. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    25. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    26. Becker, Kent G. & Finnerty, Joseph E. & Friedman, Joseph, 1995. "Economic news and equity market linkages between the U.S. and U.K," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1191-1210, October.
    27. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
    28. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "International diversification strategies," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    29. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    30. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 31-50.
    31. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Jun 2004.
    32. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    33. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    34. Fair, Ray C., 2003. "Shock effects on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 307-341, June.
    35. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
    36. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386737.
    37. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Contagious Currency Crises: Channels of Conveyance," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 29-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    39. Barsky, Robert B, 1989. "Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1132-1145, December.
    40. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Andreas Beyer & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Does it Matter How to Measure Aggregates? The Case of Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 08-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    42. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    43. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
    44. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October.
    45. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_99-1.
    46. Linda S. Goldberg & Deborah Leonard, 2003. "What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Sep).
    47. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    48. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 99, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    49. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:219-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-328, November.
    51. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1996. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence From the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    52. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    53. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, Rene M., 2003. "Are financial assets priced locally or globally?," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 975-1020, Elsevier.
    54. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
    55. Connolly, Robert A. & Wang, F. Albert, 2003. "International equity market comovements: Economic fundamentals or contagion?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 23-43, January.
    56. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    57. Zapatero, Fernando, 1995. "Equilibrium asset prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 787-811, May.
    58. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-36.
    59. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 317-341, March.
    60. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2007. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 1-30.
    61. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    62. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    63. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    64. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    65. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    66. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sandoval Paucar, Giovanny, 2018. "Efectos de desbordamiento sobre los mercados financieros de Colombia. Identificación a través de la heterocedasticidad [Spillovers effects on financial markets of Colombia. Identification through h," MPRA Paper 90422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    3. Albuquerque, Rui & Vega, Clara, 2006. "Asymmetric Information in the Stock Market: Economic News and Co-movement," CEPR Discussion Papers 5598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2009. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 2-17, January.
    5. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    7. Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M., 2008. "Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite," Other publications TiSEM d684f3c7-7ad8-4e93-88cf-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Gregory Bauer & Clara Vega, 2004. "The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," Staff Working Papers 04-47, Bank of Canada.
    9. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.
    10. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2017. "Euro area government bonds – Fragmentation and contagion during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-44.
    11. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
    12. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    13. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    14. Thomas Gilbert & Chiara Scotti & Georg Strasser & Clara Vega, 2015. "Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Forbes, Kristin J. & Chinn, Menzie David, 2003. "A Decomposition Of Global Linkages In Financial Markets Over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4391b5w7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    16. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    17. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    18. Kohonen, Anssi, 2013. "On detection of volatility spillovers in overlapping stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-158.
    19. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    20. Wongswan, Jon, 2009. "The response of global equity indexes to U.S. monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 344-365, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial market linkages; integration; international financial markets; transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.