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A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK
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A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK

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  • Gilmartin, Michelle
  • Swales, Kim J.
  • Turner, Karen

Abstract

In previous work we have applied the environmental multi-region input-output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner et al (2007) to examine the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the Rest of the UK. In McGregor et al (2008) we construct an interregional economy-environment input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) framework that allows us to investigate methods of attributing responsibility for pollution generation in the UK at the regional level. This facilitates analysis of the nature and significance of environmental spillovers and the existence of an environmental ‘trade balance’ between regions. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, we argue that the use of such a framework allows us to begin to consider questions such as the extent to which a devolved authority like the Scottish Parliament can and should be responsible for contributing to national targets for reductions in emissions levels (e.g. the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol) when it is limited in the way it can control emissions, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the UK. However, while such analysis is useful in terms of accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. In this paper we argue that where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium approach that models behavioural relationships in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is more appropriate and informative. To illustrate our analysis, we compare the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using both IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels affect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilmartin, Michelle & Swales, Kim J. & Turner, Karen, 2008. "A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-24, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:37
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    Cited by:

    1. Turner, Karen & Gilmartin, Michelle & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim, 2009. "The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-13, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Karen Turner & Michelle Gilmartin & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales, 2012. "An integrated IO and CGE approach to analysing changes in environmental trade balances," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(1), pages 161-180, March.
    3. Ignacio Cazcarro & Rosa Duarte & Julio Sánchez Chóliz & Cristina Sarasa & Ana Serrano, 2016. "Modelling regional policy scenarios in the agri-food sector: a case study of a Spanish region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(16), pages 1463-1480, April.
    4. Wiedmann, Thomas, 2009. "A review of recent multi-region input-output models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 211-222, December.
    5. Wu, Ziping & Pei, Pei, 2018. "Potential Impacts of Changes in Single Farm Payment (SFP) on Rural Economy in Northern Ireland (NI)," 162nd Seminar, April 26-27, 2018, Budapest, Hungary 272089, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE modelling; MRIO; CO2 trade balance; environmental responsibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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