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The sources of growth in a technologically progressive economy: the United States, 1899‐1941
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The sources of growth in a technologically progressive economy: the United States, 1899‐1941

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  • Bakker, Gerben
  • Crafts, Nicholas
  • Woltjer, Pieter

Abstract

We develop new aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth estimates for the USA between 1899 and 1941, and sectoral estimates at the most disaggregated level so far, 38 industries. We include hard-to-measure services, and a refined measure of sectoral labour quality growth. The resulting data set supersedes Kendrick (1961), showing TFP growth lower than previously thought, broadly based across industries, and strongly variant intertemporally. The four ‘great inventions’ that Gordon (2016) highlighted were important but less dominant in TFP growth than their predecessors in the British industrial revolution. The findings also make it unlikely the 1930s had the twentieth century's highest TFP growth.

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  • Bakker, Gerben & Crafts, Nicholas & Woltjer, Pieter, 2019. "The sources of growth in a technologically progressive economy: the United States, 1899‐1941," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 89507, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:89507
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    Cited by:

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    3. Eoin McLaughlin & Cristián Ducoing & Les Oxley, 2024. "Tracing Sustainability in the Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates 1850–2018," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Environmental Public Goods: A National Accounts Perspective, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kyoji Fukao & Tatsuji Makino & Tokihiko Settsu, 2021. "Human Capital And Economic Growth In Japan: 1885–2015," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 710-740, July.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2023. "The 1932 Federal Reserve Open‐Market Purchases as a Precedent for Quantitative Easing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    6. Fioramonti, Lorenzo & Coscieme, Luca & Costanza, Robert & Kubiszewski, Ida & Trebeck, Katherine & Wallis, Stewart & Roberts, Debra & Mortensen, Lars F. & Pickett, Kate E. & Wilkinson, Richard & Ragnar, 2022. "Wellbeing economy: An effective paradigm to mainstream post-growth policies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    7. Alexander J. Field, 2023. "The decline of US manufacturing productivity between 1941 and 1948," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1163-1190, November.
    8. Andrew Beauchamp, 2020. "Humane Capital: A Reexamination of Catholic Social Teachings in Light of the Shift to Human Capital," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(4), pages 1209-1240, September.
    9. Gallardo Albarrán, Daniel, 2024. "The Global Sanitary Revolution in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 18754, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Gerben Bakker, 2021. "Infrastructure killed the electric car," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 947-948, October.
    11. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Paper Series 2022-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Tony Ward, 2024. "Ritalin, Animal Spirits and the Productivity Puzzle," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 57(2), pages 129-142, June.

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    Keywords

    productivity growth; total factor productivity; great inventions; spillovers; United States history;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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