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An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates
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An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates

Author

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  • Frédérique Bec
  • Mélika Ben Salem

    (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)

Abstract

This paper develops an asymmetrical overshooting correction autoregressive model to capture excessive nominal exchange rate variation. It is based on the widely accepted perception that open economies might react differently to under-evaluation or over-evaluation of their currency because of the trade-off between fostering their net exports and maintaining their international purchasing power. Our approach departs from existing works by considering explicitly both size and sign effects: the strength of the overshooting correction mechanism is indeed allowed to differ between large and small depreciations and appreciations. Evidence of overshooting correction is found in most G20 countries. Formal statistical tests confirm sign and/or size asymmetry of the overshooting correction mechanism in most countries. It turns out that the overshooting correction specification is heterogeneous among countries, even though most of Emerging Market and Developing Economies are found to adjust to over-depreciation whereas the Euro Area and the US are shown to adjust to over-appreciation only.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2020. "An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates," THEMA Working Papers 2020-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2020-11
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal exchange rate; asymmetrical overshooting correction.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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