Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.
My bibliography Save this paperAn econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, January.
References listed on IDEAS
- Gabriel Perez‐Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000.
"Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, June.
- Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1999. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp335, Financial Markets Group.
- Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 1999. "Firm size and cyclical variations in stock returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119113, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
- Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989.
"A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
- Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Working Papers 89-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 89-01, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003.
"Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
04-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Jun 2004.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2005. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 11312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2004. "Real-time price discovery in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/19, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Gray, Stephen F., 1996.
"Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Gray's 1996 Regime Switching GARCH paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00080, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998.
"Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
- Rydén, Tobias & Teräsvirta, Timo & Åsbrink, Stefan, 1996. "Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 117, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989.
"Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5h07k8vf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-593, Sept.-Oct.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data II: Autoregression tests based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-396, October.
- Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, November.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, November.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Wai Mun Fong & Kim Hock See, 2001. "Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime switching process," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 133-163.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Garcia, Rene, 1998.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
- René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
- Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
- Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007.
"Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
- Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012.
"Regime Changes and Financial Markets,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
- Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timmermann, Allan & Ang, Andrew, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 8480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001.
"Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 1999. "Does an Intertemporal Tradeoff between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0028, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 1999. "Does an Intertemporal Tradeoff between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0028, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0011, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0011, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006.
"Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?,"
Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
- Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
- Ang, Andrew & Gu, Li & Hochberg, Yael V., 2007.
"Is Ipo Underperformance a Peso Problem?,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 565-594, September.
- Andrew Ang & Li Gu & Yael V. Hochberg, 2006. "Is IPO Underperformance a Peso Problem?," NBER Working Papers 12203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008.
"Size and Value Anomalies under Regime Shifts,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-48, Winter.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Size and value anomalies under regime shifts," Working Papers 2005-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Haase, Felix & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023.
"Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 587-605.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Working Paper Series 2020-03, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 8828, CESifo.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2009.
"What tames the Celtic Tiger? Portfolio implications from a Multivariate Markov Switching model,"
Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 463-488.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Liu, Xinyi & Margaritis, Dimitris & Wang, Peiming, 2012. "Stock market volatility and equity returns: Evidence from a two-state Markov-switching model with regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-496.
- James Morley, 2000. "Is There a Positive Intertemporal Tradeoff Between Risk and Return After All?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0915, Econometric Society.
- Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009.
"Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk,"
Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 15-48, January.
- Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2005. "Small Caps in International Equity Portfolios: The Effects of Variance Risk," CeRP Working Papers 41, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Azamat Abdymomunov & James Morley, 2011. "Time variation of CAPM betas across market volatility regimes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1463-1478.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009.
"Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011.
"Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
More about this item
Keywords
time series analysis; Stocks; bond markets;All these keywords.
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ETS-2005-05-23 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2005-05-23 (Finance)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.