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Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter
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Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter

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Abstract

For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? To answer these questions, we develop a filtering method that estimates parameters of an income process and recovers persistent and temporary earnings for every individual at every point in time. Our estimation flexibly allows for first and second moments of shocks to depend upon observables as well as spells of zero earnings (i.e., unemployment) and easily integrates into theoretical models. We apply our filter to a unique linkage of 23.5m SSA-CPS records. We first demonstrate that our earnings-based filter successfully captures observable shocks in the SSA-CPS data, such as job switching and layoffs. We then show that despite a decline in overall earnings risk since the 1980s, persistent earnings risk has risen for both employed and unemployed workers, while temporary earnings risk declined. Furthermore, the size of persistent earnings losses associated with full year unemployment has increased by 50%. Using geography, education, and occupation information in the SSA-CPS records, we refute hypotheses related to declining employment prospects among routine and low-skill workers as well as spatial theories related to the decline of the Rust-Belt. We show that rising persistent earnings risk is concentrated among high-skill workers and related to technology adoption. Lastly, we find that rising persistent earnings risk while employed (unemployed) leads to welfare losses equivalent to 1.8% (0.7%) of lifetime consumption, and larger persistent earnings losses while unemployed lead to a 3.3% welfare loss.

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  • John Carter Braxton & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Jonathan Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2021. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmoi:93489
    DOI: 10.21034/iwp.55
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Moffitt & John Abowd & Christopher Bollinger & Michael Carr & Charles Hokayem & Kevin McKinney & Emily Wiemers & Sisi Zhang & James Ziliak, 2022. "Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig, 2022. "Neoclassical Growth with Long-Term One-Sided Commitment Contracts," NBER Working Papers 30518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Krueger, Dirk & Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 17757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Freund, L. B., 2022. "Superstar Teams: The Micro Origins and Macro Implications of Coworker Complementarities," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2276, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    6. J. Carter Braxton & Bledi Taska, 2023. "Technological Change and the Consequences of Job Loss," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 279-316, February.
    7. Gu, Shijun & Jia, Chengcheng, 2023. "A comment on “wealth inequality and endogenous growth” by Byoungchan Lee," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 149-155.
    8. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig, 2024. "Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-021, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings risk; Transitory risk; Persistent risk; Technology adoption; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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