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Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations
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Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations

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Abstract

We study a variation of the standard model of sovereign default, as in Aguiar and Gopinath (2006) or Arellano (2008), and show that this variation is consistent with multiple interest rate equilibria. Some of those equilibria correspond to the ones identified by Calvo (1988), where default is likely because rates are high, and rates are high because default is likely. The model is used to simulate equilibrium movements in sovereign bond spreads that resemble sovereign debt crises. It is also used to discuss lending policies similar to the ones announced by the European Central Bank in 2012.

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  • Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2015. "Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations," Working Papers 723, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:723
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; interest rate spreads; Multiple equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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