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When is there a strong transfer risk from the sovereigns to the corporates? Property rights gaps and CDS spreads
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When is there a strong transfer risk from the sovereigns to the corporates? Property rights gaps and CDS spreads

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  • Jennie Bai
  • Shang-Jin Wei

Abstract

When a sovereign faces the risk of debt default, it may be tempted to expropriate the private sector. This may be one reason why international investment in private companies has to take into account the sovereign risk. But the likelihood of sovereign risk transferring to corporates and increasing their risk of default may be mitigated by legal institutions that provide strong property rights protection. Using a novel credit default swaps (CDS) data set covering government and corporate entities across thirty countries, we study both the average strength of the transfer risks and the role of institutions in mitigating such risks. We find that 1) sovereign risk on average has a statistically and economically significant influence on corporate credit risks (all else equal, a 100 basis point increase in the sovereign CDS spread leads to an increase in corporate CDS spreads of 71 basis points); 2) the sovereign-corporate relation varies across corporations, with state-owned companies exhibiting a stronger relation with the sovereign; and 3) the presence of strong property rights institutions, however, tends to weaken the connection. In contrast, contracting institutions (offering protection of creditor rights or minority shareholder rights) do not appear to matter much in this context.

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  • Jennie Bai & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "When is there a strong transfer risk from the sovereigns to the corporates? Property rights gaps and CDS spreads," Staff Reports 579, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:579
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    2. Bedendo, Mascia & Colla, Paolo, 2015. "Sovereign and corporate credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-52.
    3. Cristina Arellano & Andrew Atkeson & Mark Wright, 2016. "External and Public Debt Crises," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 191-244.
    4. Schioppa, Claudio A. & Papadia, Andrea, 2015. "Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany," MPRA Paper 102863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    5. Neele Balke, 2018. "The Employment Cost of Sovereign Default," 2018 Meeting Papers 1256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Hill, Paula & Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Faff, Robert, 2018. "New evidence on sovereign to corporate credit rating spill-overs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 209-225.
    7. Andrea Papadia & Claudio A. Schioppa, 2024. "Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(6), pages 2074-2112.
    8. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    9. Andreasen, Eugenia, 2015. "Sovereign default, enforcement and the private cost of capital," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 411-427.
    10. Patrick Augustin & Hamid Boustanifar & Johannes Breckenfelder & Jan Schnitzler, 2018. "Sovereign to Corporate Risk Spillovers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 857-891, August.
    11. Yu, Sherry, 2017. "Sovereign and bank Interdependencies—Evidence from the CDS market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 68-84.
    12. Düll, Robert & König, Felix & Ohls, Jana, 2017. "On the exposure of insurance companies to sovereign risk—Portfolio investments and market forces," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 93-106.
    13. Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "Oil prices and corporate high-yield spreads: Evidence from panels of nonenergy and energy European firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 34-40.
    14. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2017. "What’s Mine Is Yours: Sovereign Risk Transmission during the European Debt Crisis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    15. Li, Delong & Magud, Nicolas E. & Werner, Alejandro, 2023. "The long-run impact of sovereign yields on corporate yields in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2020. "Systemic risk and financial stability dynamics during the Eurozone debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debts; External; Risk; Corporations - Finance; Credit derivatives; Swaps (Finance); Corporate governance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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