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Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs
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Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs

Author

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  • Oskar Lecuyer

    (OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research - UNIBE - Universität Bern / University of Bern)

  • Adrien Vogt-Schilb

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Climate Change Group - The World Bank)

Abstract

This paper studies the optimal transition from existing coal power plants to gas and renewable power under a carbon budget. It solves a model of polluting, exhaustible resources with capacity constraints and adjustment costs (to build coal, gas, and renewable power plants). It finds that optimal investment in renewable energy may start before coal power has been phased out and even before investment in gas has started, because doing so allows for smoothing investment over time and reduces adjustment costs. Gas plants may be used to reduce short-term investment in renewable power and associated costs, but must eventually be phased out to allow room for carbon-free power. One risk for myopic agents comparing gas and renewable investment is thus to overestimate the lifetime of gas plants - e.g., when computing the levelized cost of electricity - and be biased against renewable power. These analytical results are quantified with numerical simulations of the European Commission's 2050 energy roadmap.

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  • Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2014. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," CIRED Working Papers hal-01057241, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-01057241
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    Keywords

    climate change mitigation; path dependence; optimal timing; investment; resource extraction; dynamic efficiency; early-scrapping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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