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European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
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European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sirgit Perdana

    (CMCS-EPFL - CMCS-EPFL - EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)

  • Marc Vielle

    (CMCS-EPFL - CMCS-EPFL - EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)

  • Maxime Schenkery

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School)

Abstract

The recent economic sanctions against Russia can jeopardize the sustainability of the European Union's (EU) energy supply. Despite the EU's strong commitment to stringent abatement targets, fossil fuels still play a significant role in the EU energy policy. Furthermore, high dependency on Russian energy supplies underlines the vulnerability of the EU energy security. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, we prove that the current EU embargo on coal and oil imported from Russia will have adverse supply effects, substantially increasing energy prices and welfare costs for the EU resident. Although it reduces emissions, extending the embargo to include natural gas doubles this welfare cost. The use of coal is likely to increase, especially with respect to EU electricity generation, given the current constraints of additional import capacities from nonRussian producers. The impact on Russia once the EU extends the sanctions to natural gas is less substantial than on the EU. Russian welfare cost will increase less than 50%, indicating that extending the current restriction to boycott Russian gas is a costly policy option.

Suggested Citation

  • Sirgit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenkery, 2022. "European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers hal-03898833, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03898833
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-03898833
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    1. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Nikas, Alexandros & Frilingou, Natasha & Heussaff, Conall & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Mittal, Shivika & Sampedro, Jon & Giarola, Sara & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Rinaldi, Lorenzo & Doukas, Haris & Gambhir, Aja, 2024. "Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    3. Ioana-Ancuta Iancu & Patrick Hendrick & Dan Doru Micu & Stefan Dragos Cirstea, 2023. "The Demand for Energy Imports from Non-Renewable Resources in EU-27 Economy," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/362698, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Ioana Ancuta Iancu & Patrick Hendrick & Dan Doru Micu & Stefan Dragos Cirstea, 2023. "The Demand for Energy Imports from Non-Renewable Resources in EU-27 Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Duparc-Portier, Geoffroy & Figus, Gioele, 2024. "How should governments respond to energy price crises? A horse-race between fiscal policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Tomasz Rokicki & Piotr Bórawski & András Szeberényi, 2023. "The Impact of the 2020–2022 Crises on EU Countries’ Independence from Energy Imports, Particularly from Russia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-26, September.

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    Keywords

    European Union; Russia; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Fit for 55 Package; Imports Ban;
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