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The non-monetary side of the global disinflation
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The non-monetary side of the global disinflation

Author

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  • Gregor Schwerhoff

    (BGSE - Bonn Graduate School of Economics - BGSE)

  • Mouhamadou Sy

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

The dramatic decline in inflation across the world over the last 20 years has been largely credited to improved monetary policy. The universal nature of the phenomenon and its simultaneity with globalization however indicate that there might also be a "real" side to it. We build a model based on Melitz (2003) in which falling transport cost lead to greater openness, higher productivity and lower inflation. Following a decline in transport cost openness increases and firm selection eliminates the least productive domestic firms. The consequent increase in average productivity leads to falling relative prices for goods. A cash-in-advance constraint allows to analyse how falling relative prices can lead to lower inflation. Using a dataset of macroeconomic variables for 107 countries from all world regions we are able to show that openness-induced productivity growth leads to a significant decline in inflation world wide.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Schwerhoff & Mouhamadou Sy, 2013. "The non-monetary side of the global disinflation," Working Papers halshs-00564957, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00564957
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00564957v2
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    3. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Nistor, Simona, 2016. "Systemic risk, corporate governance and regulation of banks across emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 59-63.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    globalization; openness; productivity; disinflation; mondialisation; ouverture; productivité; désinflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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