(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hoo/wpaper/16109.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations

Author

Listed:
  • John B. Taylor

    (Department of Economics, Stanford University)

  • Volker Wieland

Abstract

Recently there has been an explosion of research on whether the equilibrium real interest rate has declined, an issue with significant implications for monetary policy. A common finding is that the rate has declined. In this paper we provide evidence that contradicts this finding. We show that the perceived decline may well be due to shifts in regulatory policy and monetary policy that have been omitted from the research. In developing the monetary policy implications, it is promising that much of the research approaches the policy problem through the framework of monetary policy rules, as uncertainty in the equilibrium real rate is not a reason to abandon rules in favor of discretion. But the results are still inconclusive and too uncertain to incorporate into policy rules in the ways that have been suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2016. "Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations," Economics Working Papers 16109, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hoo:wpaper:16109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/16109_-_finding_the_equilibrium_real_interest_rate_in_a_fog_of_policy_deviations_-_taylor_and_wieland.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haselmann, Rainer & Kick, Thomas & Behn, Markus & Vig, Vikrant, 2015. "The Political Economy of Bank Bailouts," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113082, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve," Kiel Policy Brief 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Florian Deuflhard & Dimitris Georgarakos & Roman Inderst, 2019. "Financial Literacy and Savings Account Returns," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 131-164.
    4. Vasco Curdia, 2015. "Why so slow? A gradual return for interest rates," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2012. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Database," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 800-816, August.
    6. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Helmut Siekmann, 2015. "The Legal Framework for the European System of Central Banks," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Frank Rövekamp & Moritz Bälz & Hanns Günther Hilpert (ed.), Central Banking and Financial Stability in East Asia, edition 127, pages 43-86, Springer.
    9. Fecht, Falko & Inderst, Roman & Pfeil, Sebastian, 2015. "A theory of the boundaries of banks with implications for financial integration and regulation," IMFS Working Paper Series 87, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    10. Binder, Michael & Bluhm, Marcel, 2014. "On the Conditional Effects of IMF Loan Program Participation on Output Growth," IMFS Working Paper Series 78, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    11. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2014. "Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 121-125.
    12. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Athanasios Orphanides, 2016. "What Happened in Cyprus? The Economic Consequences of the Last Communist Government in Europe," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Alexander Michaelides & Athanasios Orphanides (ed.), THE CYPRUS BAIL-IN POLICY LESSONS FROM THE CYPRUS ECONOMIC CRISIS, chapter 5, pages 163-207, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 181-209, June.
    15. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2013. "Is monetary policy overburdened?," IMFS Working Paper Series 75, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    16. Tröger, Tobias H., 2014. "How special are they? Targeting systemic risk by regulating shadow banking," IMFS Working Paper Series 83, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    17. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Oct.
    18. Inderst, Roman & Hoffmann, Florian & Opp, Marcus, 2014. "Regulating Deferred Incentive Pay," CEPR Discussion Papers 9877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    20. Siekmann, Helmut, 2014. "Zur Offenlegung der Bezüge von Sparkassenführungskräften im Internet," IMFS Working Paper Series 77, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    21. Remsperger, Hermann, 2014. "Der makroprudenzielle Komplex: Der Prozess, das Schloss, das Urteil," SAFE White Paper Series 17, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    22. Markus Behn & Rainer Haselmann & Vikrant Vig, 2022. "The Limits of Model‐Based Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1635-1684, June.
    23. Afanasyeva, Elena & Güntner, Jochen, 2014. "Lending standards, credit booms and monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 85, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    24. Athanasios Orphanides, 2015. "Fear of Liftoff: Uncertainty, Rules, and Discretion in Monetary Policy Normalization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(3).
    25. Brüggemann, Bettina & Yoo, Jinhyuk, 2015. "Aggregate and distributional effects of increasing taxes on top income earners," IMFS Working Paper Series 94, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    26. Remsperger, Hermann, 2014. "Der makroprudenzielle Komplex: der Prozess, das Schloss, das Urteil," IMFS Working Paper Series 80, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    27. Cúrdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2015. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-83.
    28. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    29. Beyer, Robert C. M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Schätzung des mittelfristigen Gleichgewichtszinses in den Vereinigten Staaten, Deutschland und dem Euro-Raum mit der Laubach-Williams-Methode," Working Papers 03/2015, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    30. Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), 2014. "Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis," Books, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, number 8, December.
    31. Siekmann, Helmut, 2016. "Ziele, Aufgaben und Befugnisse des Europäischen Systems der Zentralbanken," IMFS Working Paper Series 101, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    32. Bletzinger, Tilman & Wieland, Volker, 2016. "Forward guidance and "lower for longer": The case of the ECB," IMFS Working Paper Series 102, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    33. Boris Hofmann & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2012. "Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    34. Liberti, José María & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2015. "Information, credit, and organization," IMFS Working Paper Series 97, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    35. John B. Taylor, 2012. "The Great Deviation," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 7, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    36. Janis Skrastins & Vikrant Vig, 2019. "How Organizational Hierarchy Affects Information Production," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 564-604.
    37. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    38. Robert Barsky & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "The Natural Rate of Interest and Its Usefulness for Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 37-43, May.
    39. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    40. Lawrence H. Summers, 2014. "Low Equilibrium Real Rates, Financial Crisis, and Secular Stagnation," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 2, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    41. Yoo, Y. Emilie, 2013. "Financial regulation and supervision across business lines in the United States: Financial holding companies post Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act," IMFS Working Paper Series 76, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    42. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2016. "The Natural Rate of Interest in Taylor Rules," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue March.
    43. Helmut Siekmann, 2015. "The Legality of Outright Monetary Transactions of the European System of Central Banks," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Frank Rövekamp & Moritz Bälz & Hanns Günther Hilpert (ed.), Central Banking and Financial Stability in East Asia, edition 127, pages 101-123, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2014. "Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 121-125.
    2. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    3. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve," Kiel Policy Brief 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    6. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    7. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859, Elsevier.
    8. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    9. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    10. Trehan, Bharat & Wu, Tao, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1584-1609, May.
    11. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
    13. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    14. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1415-1450, September.
    15. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    16. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2010. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 872-912, June.
    17. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-348.
    18. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
    19. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Instability, imprecision and inconsistent use of equilibrium real interest rate estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-14.
    20. Wieland, V. & Afanasyeva, E. & Kuete, M. & Yoo, J., 2016. "New Methods for Macro-Financial Model Comparison and Policy Analysis," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1241-1319, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hoo:wpaper:16109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hostaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.