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On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries
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On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries

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  • Mr. Andrew Berg
  • Ms. Filiz D Unsal
  • Mr. Rafael A Portillo

Abstract

Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Mr. Rafael A Portillo, 2010. "On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/134, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/134
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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Grace B Li & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2016. "VAR meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/090, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ms. Yuko Hashimoto & Mr. Konstantin Wacker, 2012. "The Role of Risk and Information for International Capital Flows: New Evidence from the SDDS," IMF Working Papers 2012/242, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Henning Weber, 2012. "Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest," IMF Working Papers 2012/006, International Monetary Fund.
    4. García-Cicco, Javier, 2022. "Alternative monetary-policy instruments and limited credibility: An exploration," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    5. Mrs. Alexandra Born & Mrs. Sarwat Jahan & Mr. Edward R Gemayel, 2011. "What Can Low-Income Countries Expect From Adopting Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 2011/276, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial frictions in a small open-economy model for Uganda," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1213-1241, September.
    7. Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Luisa Charry & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach," IMF Working Papers 2013/197, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Javier García-Cicco, 2019. "Alternative Monetary-Policy Instruments and Limited Credibility in Small and Open Economies: An Exploration," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4145, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    9. Michal Andrle & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Enrico G Berkes & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek & Rogelio Morales, 2013. "Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya," IMF Working Papers 2013/239, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ali-Kazim Zaidi & Iqbal Zaidi, 2011. "Rethinking the Monetary Policy Framework of the State Bank of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 87-123.

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