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Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies
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Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies

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  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Abstract

We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long-run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in potential growth rate. In the short-run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe haven” flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2012. "Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/271, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/271
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; bond yield; government bond bond yield; inflation; Government bond yields; long-run and short-run determinants; panel cointegration; debt ratio; sovereign bond bond yield; sovereign bond yield; real bond yields; Bond yields; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Fiscal stance; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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