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An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults
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An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on the probability of sovereign debt default. Using a sample of 116 countries over the period 1995–2017, we find that climate change vulnerability and resilience have significant effects on the probability of sovereign debt default, especially among low-income countries. That is, countries with greater vulnerability to climate change face a higher likelihood of debt default compared to more climate resilient countries. These findings remain robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, including alternative measures of sovereign debt default, model specifications, and estimation methodologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults," IMF Working Papers 2020/231, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/231
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    Cited by:

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    2. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    3. Damette, Olivier & Mathonnat, Clément & Thavard, Julien, 2024. "Climate and sovereign risk: The Latin American experience with strong ENSO events," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Gong, Xu & Song, Yijie & Fu, Chengbo & Li, Huijing, 2023. "Climate risk and stock performance of fossil fuel companies: An international analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Helena Redondo & Elisa Aracil, 2024. "Climate‐related credit risk: Rethinking the credit risk framework," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(S1), pages 21-33, March.

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