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Rethinking conflict inflation: the hybrid Keynesian - NAIRU character of the conflict Phillips curve
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Rethinking conflict inflation: the hybrid Keynesian - NAIRU character of the conflict Phillips curve

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  • Thomas I. Palley

Abstract

This paper presents a new formulation of conflict inflation labeled the "pass-through" approach, which contrasts with the existing "pressure balance" approach. The model generates Phillips styled inflation - unemployment dynamics that are a hybrid of Keynesian and NAIRU dynamics. Conflict inflation arises when economic activity rises above the consistent claims activity level, and it is subject to self-propelled conflict accelerationism. Immediately below that level, inflation holds constant at the expected rate. At low activity, accelerating disinflation can develop. Worker militancy, corporate aggressiveness, negative supply shocks, and upward commodity price shocks all contribute to conflict inflation. They do so via two channels. First, they increase the intensity of conflict by increasing the degree of income claims inconsistency. Second, they lower the activity level at which conflict inflation kicks in. Policy can affect the consistent claims economic activity threshold at which conflict inflation kicks in. However, there may be adverse interaction effects with aggregate demand. Conflict inflation is best addressed by unconventional policies, such as incomes policy. Institutional developments in the Neoliberal era have likely reduced the relevance of conflict inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas I. Palley, 2024. "Rethinking conflict inflation: the hybrid Keynesian - NAIRU character of the conflict Phillips curve," FMM Working Paper 101-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:fmmpap:101-2024
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    2. Marc Lavoie, 2022. "Post-Keynesian Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 19900.
    3. Anthony Myatt, 1986. "On the Non-Existence of a Natural Rate of Unemployment and Kaleckian Micro Underpinnings to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 447-462, March.
    4. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1987. "Alternative Closures Again: A Comment on 'Growth, Distribution and Inflation.'," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 11(1), pages 75-82, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict inflation; wage share; mark-up; accelerationism; Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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