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Contagion across Eurozone's sovereign spreads and the Core-Periphery divide
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Contagion across Eurozone's sovereign spreads and the Core-Periphery divide

Author

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  • Elisabetta Croci Angelini

    (University of Macerata)

  • Francesco Farina

    (University of Siena)

  • Enzo Valentini

    (University of Macerata)

Abstract

This paper investigates the causes of disproportionate increases of sovereign yields with respect to the interest rate on the 10 years German Bund within the Eurozone. Empirical evidence drawn from the BIS dataset on banks' portfolios shows that rapid financial integration, following the launch of the monetary union, resulted in excess exposure of Core countries' banks in the Peripheral countries' financial assets. In order to endogenize the possibility of contagion effects, we conduct econometric estimates through a GVAR model, where each country's spread depends upon all Eurozone countries' spreads. Results show that after the burst of the financial crisis the Core countries' sovereign yields are essentially determined by the international risk aversion, whereas the spreads of Peripheral countries mainly depend on fundamentals, namely the public debt/GDP ratio and the REER values with respect to the Eurozone average. Macroeconomic failures in public finances and competitiveness seem to originate the exceptional increases in sovereign spreads of the Periphery, through a contagion effect which is limited to this group of Eurozone countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisabetta Croci Angelini & Francesco Farina & Enzo Valentini, 2014. "Contagion across Eurozone's sovereign spreads and the Core-Periphery divide," Working Papers 45-2014, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised Jan 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcr:wpaper:wpaper00045
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Current account imbalances and the Euro Area. Controversies and policy lessons," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 203-234, April.
    2. EnDer Su, 2021. "Testing stock market contagion properties between large and small stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 147-202, July.
    3. Francesco Saraceno & Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "How can it work? On the impact of quantitative easing in the Eurozone," DEM Working Papers 2015/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4ei7u710bj9par121c71ul9fdr is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mirdala, Rajmund & Ruščáková, Anna, 2015. "On Origins and Implications of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4ppcskgnsc8tmbhdrupis355j7 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Francesco Saraceno & Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "How can it work? On the impact of quantitative easing in the Eurozone," DEM Working Papers 2015/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area: Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4ppcskgnsc8tmbhdrupis355j7 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "Europe at the Interdependence War," EconPol Working Paper 2, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Francesco Farina & Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "Europe's Great Divide. A geo-economic-political map," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 101, European Institute, LSE.
    12. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Macroeconomic Imbalances and the Euro Zone. Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 14, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4ei7u710bj9par121c71ul9fdr is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary union; International risk aversion; Sovereign bond spreads; Contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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