(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Complexity and Targeting in Federal Student Aid: A Quantitative Analysis
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/13801.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Complexity and Targeting in Federal Student Aid: A Quantitative Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Susan Dynarski
  • Judith E. Scott-Clayton

Abstract

A growing body of empirical evidence shows that some financial aid programs increase college enrollment. Puzzlingly, there is little compelling evidence that Pell Grants and Stafford Loans, the primary federal student aid programs, are effective in achieving this goal. In this paper, we provide an in-depth review of this evidence, which taken as a whole suggests that complexity and uncertainty in the federal aid system undermine its efficacy. We document complexity in the aid system, comparing it in particular to complexity in the tax system. We build on our previous work by showing that complexity in the aid process does little to improve the targeting of both student loans and grants, for both dependent and independent students. We conclude that the current targeting of aid can be reproduced with a much simpler aid process. While we show that the targeting benefits of complexity are small, we further document that the costs are large. We offer new estimates of the compliance costs faced by applicants and the administrative costs borne by the government and colleges. These costs total at least $4 billion per year. The perspective of behavioral economics suggests that the true cost is even higher, since complexity and uncertainty may discourage the target population from applying for student aid.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan Dynarski & Judith E. Scott-Clayton, 2008. "Complexity and Targeting in Federal Student Aid: A Quantitative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13801
    Note: ED PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13801.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Rabin & Ted O'Donoghue, 1999. "Doing It Now or Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March.
    2. Richard H. Thaler, 2017. "Behavioral Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 1799-1805.
    3. Blumenthal, Marsha & Slemrod, Joel, 1992. "The Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income Tax System: A Second Look After Tax Reform," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202, June.
    4. Blumenthal, Marsha & Slemrod, Joel, 1992. "The Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income Tax System: A Second Look After Tax Reform," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 45(2), pages 185-202, June.
    5. Nichols, Albert L & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1982. "Targeting Transfers through Restrictions on Recipients," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 372-377, May.
    6. Gale, William G. & Holtzblatt, Janet, 1997. "On the Possibility of a No-Return Tax System," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 50(3), pages 475-485, September.
    7. Susan Dynarski, 2004. "The New Merit Aid," NBER Chapters, in: College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It, pages 63-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:mpr:mprres:3250 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Moffitt, Robert, 1983. "An Economic Model of Welfare Stigma," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1023-1035, December.
    10. Kaplow, Louis, 1990. "Optimal taxation with costly enforcement and evasion," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 221-236, November.
    11. Marianne Bertrand & Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2000. "Network Effects and Welfare Cultures," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 1019-1055.
    12. Esther Duflo & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "The Role of Information and Social Interactions in Retirement Plan Decisions: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 815-842.
    13. Currie, Janet, 2004. "The Take-Up of Social Benefits," IZA Discussion Papers 1103, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Dynarski, Susan & Scott-Clayton, Judith, 2007. "College Grants on a Postcard: A Proposal for Simple and Predictable Federal Student Aid," Working Paper Series rwp07-014, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    15. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa A. Clark, 2006. "Financial Aid and Students’ College Decisions: Evidence from the District of Columbia Tuition Assistance Grant Program," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(3).
    16. Susan Dynarski, 2008. "Building the Stock of College-Educated Labor," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(3), pages 576-610.
    17. Brigitte C. Madrian & Dennis F. Shea, 2001. "The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1149-1187.
    18. Susan M. Dynarski, 2003. "Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 279-288, March.
    19. Eric Bettinger, 2004. "How Financial Aid Affects Persistence," NBER Chapters, in: College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It, pages 207-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Dynarski, Susan M. & Scott–Clayton, Judith E., 2006. "The Cost of Complexity in Federal Student Aid: Lessons From Optimal Tax Theory and Behavioral Economics," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 59(2), pages 319-356, June.
    21. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. "Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    22. Thomas J. Kane, 2003. "A Quasi-Experimental Estimate of the Impact of Financial Aid on College-Going," NBER Working Papers 9703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Kaplow, Louis, 1996. "How Tax Complexity and Enforcement Affect the Equity and Efficiency of the Income Tax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(1), pages 135-150, March.
    24. Christopher Avery & Thomas J. Kane, 2004. "Student Perceptions of College Opportunities. The Boston COACH Program," NBER Chapters, in: College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It, pages 355-394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Thaler, Richard H, 1994. "Psychology and Savings Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 186-192, May.
    26. Dynarski, Susan, 2004. "Tax Policy and Education Policy: Collision or Coordination? A Case Study of 529 and Coverdell Savings Vehicles," Working Paper Series rwp04-011, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    27. Louis Kaplow, 1995. "How Tax Complexity and Enforcement Affect the Equity and Efficiency of The Income Tax," NBER Working Papers 5391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Neil S. Seftor & NSarah E. Turner, 2002. "Back to School: Federal Student Aid Policy and Adult College Enrollment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 37(2), pages 336-352.
    29. Dynarski, Susan, 2000. "Hope for Whom? Financial Aid for the Middle Class and Its Impact on College Attendance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(3), pages 629-662, September.
    30. Caroline Minter Hoxby, 2004. "Introduction to "College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It"," NBER Chapters, in: College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It, pages 1-12, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Thomas J. Kane, 1995. "Rising Public College Tuition and College Entry: How Well Do Public Subsidies Promote Access to College?," NBER Working Papers 5164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Jeffrey B. Liebman, 1998. "The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Incentives and Income Distribution," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 12, pages 83-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Barrow Lisa & Rouse Cecilia Elena, 2005. "Does College Still Pay?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-9, September.
    34. Aaron S. Edlin, 1993. "Is College Financial Aid Equitable and Efficient?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 143-158, Spring.
    35. Gale, William G. & Holtzblatt, Janet, 1997. "On the Possibility of a No-Return Tax System," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(3), pages 475-85, September.
    36. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan & Eldar Shafir, 2004. "A Behavioral-Economics View of Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 419-423, May.
    37. Joel Slemrod & Nikki Sorum, 1984. "The Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income Tax System," NBER Working Papers 1401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Kaplow, Louis, 1996. "How Tax Complexity and Enforcement Affect the Equity and Efficiency of the Income Tax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(1), pages 135-50, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabrielle Fack & Julien Grenet, 2015. "Improving College Access and Success for Low-Income Students: Evidence from a Large Need-Based Grant Program," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-34, April.
    2. Andrews, Rodney J. & Imberman, Scott A. & Lovenheim, Michael F., 2020. "Recruiting and supporting low-income, high-achieving students at flagship universities," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Booij, Adam S. & Leuven, Edwin & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 2012. "The role of information in the take-up of student loans," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 33-44.
    4. Andrew Barr & Sarah Turner, 2018. "A Letter and Encouragement: Does Information Increase Postsecondary Enrollment of UI Recipients?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 42-68, August.
    5. Vivian Yuen Ting Liu, 2020. "Is School Out for the Summer? The Impact of Year-Round Pell Grants on Academic and Employment Outcomes of Community College Students," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 15(2), pages 241-269, Spring.
    6. Linda Babcock & William Congdon & Lawrence Katz & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2012. "Notes on behavioral economics and labor market policy," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Steven D. Levitt & John A. List & Susanne Neckermann & Sally Sadoff, 2016. "The Behavioralist Goes to School: Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Educational Performance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 183-219, November.
    8. Emily G. Moschini & Gajendran Raveendranathan & Ming Xu, 2022. "Over-optimism About Graduation and College Financial Aid," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022-09, McMaster University.
    9. Jeffrey A. Groen, 2011. "Building Knowledge Stocks Locally," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 25(4), pages 316-329, November.
    10. Kramer, Dennis A. & Lamb, Christina & Page, Lindsay C., 2021. "The effects of default choice on student loan borrowing: Experimental evidence from a public research university," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 470-489.
    11. Veronica Rattini, 2022. "The Effects of Financial Aid on Graduation and Labor Market Outcomes: New Evidence from Matched Education-Labor Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10010, CESifo.
    12. Celeste K. Carruthers & Jilleah G. Welch, 2015. "Not Whether, but Where? Pell Grants and College Choices," Working Papers 2015-04, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics, revised 28 Sep 2015.
    13. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Claudia Goldin, 2014. "Does Federal Student Aid Raise Tuition? New Evidence on For-Profit Colleges," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 174-206, November.
    14. Toke Reinholt Fosgaard & Lars Gårn Hansen & Erik Wengström, 2017. "Framing and Misperception in Public Good Experiments," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(2), pages 435-456, April.
    15. Seth D. Zimmerman, 2014. "The Returns to College Admission for Academically Marginal Students," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 711-754.
    16. Hastings, Justine S. & Neilson, Christopher A. & Ramirez, Anely & Zimmerman, Seth D., 2016. "(Un)informed college and major choice: Evidence from linked survey and administrative data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 136-151.
    17. Bradley L. Hardy & Dave E. Marcotte, 2022. "Ties that bind? Family income dynamics and children’s post-secondary enrollment and persistence," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 279-303, March.
    18. Carruthers, Celeste K. & Welch, Jilleah G., 2019. "Not whether, but where? Pell grants and college choices," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1-19.
    19. Kelli Bird & Benjamin L. Castleman, 2016. "Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? Investigating Rates and Patterns of Financial Aid Renewal Among College Freshmen," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 57(4), pages 395-422, June.
    20. Turner, Nicholas, 2011. "The Effect of Tax-Based Federal Student Aid on College Enrollment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(3), pages 839-861, September.
    21. Yi, Hongmei & Zhang, Linxiu & Yao, Yezhou & Wang, Aiqin & Ma, Yue & Shi, Yaojiang & Chu, James & Loyalka, Prashant & Rozelle, Scott, 2015. "Exploring the dropout rates and causes of dropout in upper-secondary technical and vocational education and training (TVET) schools in China," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 115-123.
    22. Turner, Nicholas, 2010. "The Effect of Tax-Based Federal Student Aid on College Enrollment," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6758069g, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dynarski, Susan M. & Scott–Clayton, Judith E., 2006. "The Cost of Complexity in Federal Student Aid: Lessons From Optimal Tax Theory and Behavioral Economics," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 59(2), pages 319-356, June.
    2. David Deming & Susan Dynarski, 2009. "Into College, Out of Poverty? Policies to Increase the Postsecondary Attainment of the Poor," NBER Working Papers 15387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lindsay C. Page & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2015. "Improving College Access in the United States: Barriers and Policy Responses," NBER Working Papers 21781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Page, Lindsay C. & Scott-Clayton, Judith, 2016. "Improving college access in the United States: Barriers and policy responses," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 4-22.
    5. David Deming & Susan Dynarski, 2010. "College Aid," NBER Chapters, in: Targeting Investments in Children: Fighting Poverty When Resources Are Limited, pages 283-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Judith Scott-Clayton, 2012. "Information Constraints and Financial Aid Policy," NBER Working Papers 17811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bruce, Donald J. & Carruthers, Celeste K., 2014. "Jackpot? The impact of lottery scholarships on enrollment in Tennessee," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 30-44.
    8. Benjamin L. Castleman & Bridget Terry Long, 2016. "Looking beyond Enrollment: The Causal Effect of Need-Based Grants on College Access, Persistence, and Graduation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(4), pages 1023-1073.
    9. Susan Dynarski & Judith Scott-Clayton & Mark Wiederspan, 2013. "Simplifying Tax Incentives and Aid for College: Progress and Prospects," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 27, pages 161-201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Brigitte C. Madrian, 2014. "Applying Insights from Behavioral Economics to Policy Design," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 663-688, August.
    11. Lovenheim, Michael F. & Owens, Emily G., 2014. "Does federal financial aid affect college enrollment? Evidence from drug offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Eric P. Bettinger & Bridget Terry Long & Philip Oreopoulos & Lisa Sanbonmatsu, 2009. "The Role of Simplification and Information in College Decisions: Results from the H&R Block FAFSA Experiment," NBER Working Papers 15361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Eric Bettinger & Oded Gurantz & Laura Kawano & Bruce Sacerdote, 2016. "The Long Run Impacts of Merit Aid: Evidence from California’s Cal Grant," NBER Working Papers 22347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Susan Dynarski, 2008. "Building the Stock of College-Educated Labor," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(3), pages 576-610.
    15. Waddell, Glen R. & Singell Jr., Larry D., 2011. "Do no-loan policies change the matriculation patterns of low-income students?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 203-214, April.
    16. Gabrielle Fack & Julien Grenet, 2015. "Improving College Access and Success for Low-Income Students: Evidence from a Large Need-Based Grant Program," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-34, April.
    17. David L. Sjoquist & John V. Winters, 2015. "State Merit-Based Financial Aid Programs And College Attainment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 364-390, June.
    18. Andrew Barr, 2015. "From the Battlefield to the Schoolyard: The Short- Term Impact of the Post- 9/11 GI Bill," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 580-613.
    19. Stella M. Flores & Justin C. Shepherd, 2014. "Pricing Out the Disadvantaged? The Effect of Tuition Deregulation in Texas Public Four-Year Institutions," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 655(1), pages 99-122, September.
    20. Elsayed, Mahmoud A.A., 2016. "The Impact of Education Tax Benefits on College Completion," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 16-30.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.