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Market Design in Cap and Trade Programs: Permit Validity and Compliance Timing
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Market Design in Cap and Trade Programs: Permit Validity and Compliance Timing

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  • Stephen P. Holland
  • Michael R. Moore

Abstract

Cap and trade programs have considerable heterogeneity in permit validity and compliance timing. For example, permits have different validity across time (e.g., banking, borrowing, and seasons) and space (e.g., zonal restrictions), and compliance timing can be annual, in overlapping cycles, or in multi-year periods. We compare and contrast nine prominent cap and trade programs along these dimensions and construct a general model of permit validity and compliance timing. We derive sufficient conditions under which abatement is invariant to compliance timing, i.e., compliance timing cannot smooth abatement cost shocks. Under these conditions, i) expected compliance costs are invariant, ii) the variance of compliance costs increases with delayed compliance, iii) equilibrium prices may not be unique, and iv) the delayed compliance equilibrium may rely upon non-unique, "degenerate" prices not determined by marginal abatement costs. Degenerate prices are unlikely to be discovered by market forces. We then present two examples which are not invariant to compliance timing. If permit allocation is delayed or if a price cap is implemented with a reserve fund, abatement may depend on compliance timing. We demonstrate the model's broad applicability by illustrating different types of temporal and spatial permit validity.

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  • Stephen P. Holland & Michael R. Moore, 2012. "Market Design in Cap and Trade Programs: Permit Validity and Compliance Timing," NBER Working Papers 18098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18098
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    1. Yu, Jongmin & Mallory, Mindy L., 2015. "An optimal hybrid emission control system in a multiple compliance period model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 16-28.
    2. Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K. & Engström, Max, 2024. "Time Horizons and Emissions Trading," Discussion Papers 2024/2, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    3. Holland, Stephen P. & Moore, Michael R., 2013. "Market design in cap and trade programs: Permit validity and compliance timing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 671-687.
    4. Gabriel E Lade & C -Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 707-731.
    5. Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn, 2015. "Harvest efficiency and fishery discards under harvest uncertainty and trading restrictions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-91.
    6. Traeger, Christian & Karp, Larry, 2021. "Smart Cap," CEPR Discussion Papers 15941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak & Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins, 2019. "Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3953-3977, November.
    8. Ji, Xiang & Li, Guo & Wang, Zhaohua, 2017. "Allocation of emission permits for China’s power plants: A systemic Pareto optimal method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 607-619.
    9. Hasegawa, Makoto & Salant, Stephen, 2012. "Cap-and-Trade Programs under Delayed Compliance," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-32, Resources for the Future.
    10. Thomas D. Jeitschko & Pallavi Pal, 2021. "Curbing Price Fluctuations in Cap-and-Trade Auctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9266, CESifo.
    11. Makoto Hasegawa & Stephen Salant, 2015. "The Dynamics of Pollution Permits," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 61-79, October.
    12. Lintunen, Jussi & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2018. "Business cycles and emission trading with banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 397-417.
    13. Estelle Cantillon & Aurélie Slechten, 2023. "Market Design for the Environment," NBER Chapters, in: New Directions in Market Design, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Khezr, Peyman & MacKenzie, Ian A., 2018. "Permit market auctions with allowance reserves," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 283-306.
    15. Lade, Gabriel & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Policy Uncertainty under Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170673, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Hasegawa, Makoto & Salant, Stephen, 2014. "Cap-and-trade programs under delayed compliance: Consequences of interim injections of permits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 24-34.
    17. Pauli Lappi, 2017. "Emissions trading, non-compliance and bankable permits," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(6), pages 1081-1099, December.
    18. Benjamin Leard, 2013. "The Welfare Effects of Allowance Banking in Emissions Trading Programs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 175-197, June.
    19. : Dubois, Loick & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2024. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Carbon Permit Banking," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/20, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    20. Hugo Morais & Tiago Pinto & Zita Vale, 2020. "Adjacent Markets Influence Over Electricity Trading—Iberian Benchmark Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.

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    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
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