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The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data
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The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data

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  • Martha J. Bailey
  • Tanya S. Byker
  • Elena Patel
  • Shanthi Ramnath

Abstract

We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California’s 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women’s employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings roughly a decade after they gave birth.

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  • Martha J. Bailey & Tanya S. Byker & Elena Patel & Shanthi Ramnath, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data," NBER Working Papers 26416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26416
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    1. Rita Ginja & Arizo Karimi & Pengpeng Xiao, 2023. "Employer Responses to Family Leave Programs," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 107-135, January.
    2. Marie Hyland & Simeon Djankov & Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, 2020. "Gendered Laws and Women in the Workforce," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 475-490, December.
    3. Maclean, J. Catherine & Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2020. "Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Welfare Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13132, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Cortes, Patricia & Pan, Jessica, 2020. "Children and the Remaining Gender Gaps in the Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 13759, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Timpe, Brenden, 2024. "The labor market impacts of America’s first paid maternity leave policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Elira Kuka & Na'ama Shenhav, 2024. "Long-Run Effects of Incentivizing Work after Childbirth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(6), pages 1692-1722, June.
    7. Benjamin Hansen & Drew McNichols, 2020. "Information and the Persistence of the Gender Wage Gap: Early Evidence from California's Salary History Ban," NBER Working Papers 27054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Johanna Posch & Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimüller, 2024. "Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 110-149, May.
    9. Canaan, Serena & Lassen, Anne Sophie & Rosenbaum, Philip & Steingrimsdottir, Herdis, 2022. "Maternity Leave and Paternity Leave: Evidence on the Economic Impact of Legislative Changes in High Income Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 15129, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Stefan Pichler & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2020. "Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Crowding-In," NBER Working Papers 26832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fariha Kamal & Asha Sundaram & Cristina J. Tello-Trillo, 2020. "Family-Leave Mandates and Female Labor at U.S. Firms: Evidence from a Trade Shock," Working Papers 20-25, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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