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Transmission of Government Default Risk in the Eurozone
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Transmission of Government Default Risk in the Eurozone

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  • Kohonen, Anssi

Abstract

The paper develops an easy-to-apply test for contagion. In order to address the main challenge of any contagion test, that of endogeneity, the testing is conducted in the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework where we assume the reduced form errors follow a mixed-normal distribution. This distributional assumption enables us to use a recently developed SVAR model identification method with no need to restrict any of the instantaneous linkages between the variables. In the empirical part of the paper, we apply our test to the eurozone's ten years government bond spreads over Germany. In this maturity, the bond spreads mainly reflect governments' default risk. The years we consider are 2005-2010, and we find evidence of contagion in the spreads. Furthermore, it appears that, during the beginning of the euro debt crisis, there was transmission of government default risk from Greece to the other countries. However, Greece was not the only source country of contagion.

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  • Kohonen, Anssi, 2012. "Transmission of Government Default Risk in the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 43823, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43823
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    Cited by:

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    2. Emanuele Bacchiocchi, 2017. "On the Identification of Interdependence and Contagion of Financial Crises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1148-1175, December.
    3. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    4. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2020. "The Financial Connectedness Between Eurozone Core And Periphery: A Disaggregated View," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(7), pages 1674-1699, October.
    5. Guidolin, Massimo & Hansen, Erwin & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Cross-asset contagion in the financial crisis: A Bayesian time-varying parameter approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-114.
    6. MacDonald, Ronald & Sogiakas, Vasilios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2018. "Volatility co-movements and spillover effects within the Eurozone economies: A multivariate GARCH approach using the financial stress index," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 17-36.
    7. Kobielarz, Michal, 2018. "The economics of monetary unions," Other publications TiSEM b0293536-68ec-4905-bffd-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Sawsen Bouker & Faysal Mansouri, 2022. "Sovereign contagion risk measure across financial markets in the eurozone: a bivariate copulas and Markov Regime Switching ARMA based approaches," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 615-711, May.
    9. Muhammad Owais Qarni & Saqib Gulzar, 2020. "Intra-EMU and non-EMU, EU stock markets’ return spillover: evidence from ESDC," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 543-577, August.
    10. Murad A.Bein & Gulcay TUNA, 2015. "Volatility Transmission and Dynamic Correlation Analysis between Developed and Emerging European Stock Markets during Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 61-80, June.
    11. Nan, Shijing & Wang, Minna & You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei, 2023. "Making text count: Identifying systemic risk spillover channels in the Chinese banking sector using annual reports text," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    12. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2024. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risk from the perspective of EPU spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 427-443.
    13. Fabrizio Durante & Enrico Foscolo & Alex Weissensteiner, 2017. "Dependence between Stock Returns of Italian Banks and the Sovereign Risk," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SVAR; contagion; interdependencies; hypothesis testing; sovereign spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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