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Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels
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Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels

Author

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  • Iourii Manovskii

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Dmytro Hryshko

    (University of Alberta)

  • Moira Daly

    (Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

The stochastic process for earnings is the key element of incomplete markets models in modern quantitative macroeconomics. It determines both the equilibrium distributions of endogenous outcomes and the design of optimal policies. Yet, there is no consensus in the literature on the relative magnitudes of the permanent and transitory innovations in earnings. When estimation is based on the earnings moments in levels, the variance of transitory shocks is found to be relatively high. When the moments in differences are used, the variance of the permanent component is relatively high instead. We show theoretically that the difference can be induced by the fact that earnings at the start or at the end of earnings spells are lower and more volatile than the observations in the interior of earnings histories. Using large administrative datasets from Denmark and Germany, we show that this property of earnings spells quantitatively accounts for the full amount of discrepancy in the estimates. Finally, we show that this property of earnings can induce a substantial upward bias in the estimate of consumption insurance against permanent shocks in the standard incomplete markets model.

Suggested Citation

  • Iourii Manovskii & Dmytro Hryshko & Moira Daly, 2015. "Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels," 2015 Meeting Papers 1395, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:1395
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2022. "Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 207-242, April.
    3. Tobias Broer & Marek Kapicka & Paul Klein, 2017. "Consumption Risk Sharing with Private Information and Limited Enforcement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 170-190, January.
    4. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2018. "Asymmetric Business-Cycle Risk and Social Insurance," NBER Working Papers 24569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jeppe Druedahl & Michael Graber & Thomas H. Jørgensen, 2021. "High Frequency Income Dynamics," CEBI working paper series 21-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    6. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    7. Arpita Chatterjee & Aarti Singh & Tahlee Stone, 2016. "Understanding Wage Inequality in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 348-360, September.
    8. Tobias Broer & Marek Kapicka & Paul Klein, 2017. "Consumption Risk Sharing with Private Information and Limited Enforcement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 170-190, January.
    9. Jay H. Hong & Byoung Hoon Seok & Hye Mi You, 2019. "Wage Volatility And Changing Patterns Of Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(2), pages 595-630, May.
    10. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.

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