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The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan
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The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan

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  • Aoki, Masahiko

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

Based on the variable rate of gross domestic product per capita growth and its sources, this paper first identifies five phases of economic development that are common to China, Japan, and Korea: M (Malthusian), G (government-led), K (à la Kuznets), H (human capital based) and PD (post demographic-transition). But there are also marked differences in the onset, duration, and institutional forms of these phases across these economies. In order to understand these differences, this paper explores the agrarian origins of institutions in Qing China and Tokugawa Japan (and briefly Chosŏn Korea) and their path-dependent transformations over those phases. In doing so, the paper employs game-theoretic reasoning and interpretations of divergent institutional evolution between China and Japan, which also clarifies the simplicity of prevailing arguments that identify East Asian developmental and institutional features with authoritarianism, collectivism, kinship-dominance, Confucianism and the like. Finally, the paper examines the relevance of the foregoing developmental discussions to the institutional agendas faced by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Japan in their respective emergent phase-transitions. In what way can the PRC avoid the “middle income trap”? What institutional shortcomings become evident from the Fukushima catastrophe and how can they be overcome in an aging Japan?

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  • Aoki, Masahiko, 2012. "The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan," ADBI Working Papers 340, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0340
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    3. Masahiko Aoki, 2013. "Historical sources of institutional trajectories in economic development: China, Japan and Korea compared," Chapters, in: Comparative Institutional Analysis, chapter 22, pages 439-469, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Victor R. Fuchs, 2018. "The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Health Economics and Policy Selected Writings by Victor Fuchs, chapter 32, pages 379-401, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Wanping Yang & Jinkai Zhao, 2018. "Sources of China’s Economic Growth: A Case for Green Accounting," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 1-3.
    6. Wagner, Prof. Dr. Helmut, 2016. "The Building Up of New Imbalances in China: The Dilemma with ‘Rebalancing’," MPRA Paper 71494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Aoki, Masahiko & Rothwell, Geoffrey, 2013. "A comparative institutional analysis of the Fukushima nuclear disaster: Lessons and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 240-247.
    9. Aoki, Masahiko, 2014. "Economic and Political Transitions from Premodern to Modern States in the Meiji Restoration and Xinhai Revolution: A Strategic Approach," ADBI Working Papers 486, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Valli Vittorio, 2012. "Growth and crisis in the Japanese economy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201207, University of Turin.
    11. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    12. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
    13. Ding Lu, 2017. "China's Growth Slowdown and Prospects for Becoming a High-Income Developed Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 89-113, Winter/Sp.
    14. Fang Cai, 2023. "Regaining China's Resource Reallocative Efficiency to Boost Growth," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(1), pages 5-21, January.
    15. Na Zhou & Jinkai Zhao & Kai Zhao & Dong Li, 2021. "Analysis on the Sources of China’s Economic Growth From the Perspective of Cleaner Production," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440219, April.
    16. Helmut Wagner, 2017. "The building up of new imbalances in China: the dilemma with ‘rebalancing’," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 701-722, October.
    17. Fayuan Wang & Rong Wang & Zhili He, 2022. "Exploring the Impact of “Double Cycle” and Industrial Upgrading on Sustainable High-Quality Economic Development: Application of Spatial and Mediation Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Wanping Yang & Jinkai Zhao, 2018. "Study On China’S Economic Development From The Perspective Of Strong Sustainability," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(01), pages 161-192, April.
    19. Sng, Tuan-Hwee, 2014. "Size and dynastic decline: The principal-agent problem in late imperial China, 1700–1850," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 107-127.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    development phases; institutional evolution; agrarian origin; prc economy; middle income trap; post demographic transition; east asia; norm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N35 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

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