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A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Switzerland
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A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Switzerland

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Nicolas Alexis Cuche-Curti
  • Harris Dellas
  • Jean-Marc Natal

Abstract

This paper presents a DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model of the Swiss economy used since 2007 in the monetary policy decision process at the Swiss National Bank. In addition to forecasting the likely course of main macro variables under various scenarios for the Swiss economy, the model DSGE-CH serves as a laboratory for studying business cycles and examining the effects of actual and hypothetical monetary policies. The microfounded model DSGE-CH represents Switzerland as a small open economy with optimizing economic agents facing several real and nominal rigidities and exogenous foreign and domestic shocks. The comparison of the model's implications with the real world indicates that DSGE-CH performs well along standard dimensions. It captures the overall stochastic structure of the Swiss economy as represented by the moments of its key macroeconomic variables, furthermore, it has appropriate dynamic properties, as judged by its impulse response functions. Finally, it quite accurately replicates the historical path of major Swiss variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Nicolas Alexis Cuche-Curti & Harris Dellas & Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2009-05, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbecs:2009-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014. "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers 2014-10, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Kaufmann, Daniel & Bäurle, Gregor, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79872, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Fabian Fink & Lukas Frei & Thomas Maag & Tanja Zehnder, 2024. "The Impact of SNB Monetary Policy on the Swiss Franc and Longer-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 53-92, February.
    5. Francesco Sergi, 2018. "DSGE Models and the Lucas Critique. A Historical Appraisal," Working Papers 20181806, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    6. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nicolas Cuche-Curti & Harris Dellas & Jean-Marc Natal, 2010. "Price Stability and the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, February.
    8. Dr. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Zuzana Mucka & Michal Horvath, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Matters A New DSGE Model for Slovakia," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    10. Zuzana Mucka, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Matters A New DSGE Model for Slovakia," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    11. Zlatica Peňáková, 2021. "Tax Policy in the Slovak and Czech Economies," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(6), pages 689-707.
    12. Victoria Nuguer, 2016. "Financial Intermediation in a Global Environment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 291-344, September.
    13. Copaciu, Mihai & Nalban, Valeriu & Bulete, Cristian, 2015. "R.E.M. 2.0, An estimated DSGE model for Romania," Dynare Working Papers 48, CEPREMAP.
    14. Johana Maritsa Hernández Henao, 2013. "Demanda externa, términos de intercambio y el papel de la política monetaria durante la crisis de 2008," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 7, CEMLA.
    15. Petroulakis, Filippos, 2017. "Internal devaluation in currency unions: the role of trade costs and taxes," Working Paper Series 2049, European Central Bank.
    16. Dr. Christian Grisse, 2020. "The effect of monetary policy on the Swiss franc: an SVAR approach," Working Papers 2020-02, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01222798, HAL.
    18. Takeshi Yagihashi, 2020. "DSGE Models Used by Policymakers: A Survey," Discussion papers ron333, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    19. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner, 2015. "How do Individual Sectors Respond to Macroeconomic Shocks? A Structural Dynamic Factor Approach Applied to Swiss Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(III), pages 167-225, September.
    20. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15066, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    21. Maturu, Benjamin O., 2022. "COVID-19 and the finance-economic growth nexus in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 60, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    22. Francesco Sergi, 2020. "The Standard Narrative about DSGE Models in Central Banks’ Technical Reports," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 163-193, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; forecasting; small open economy; Switzerland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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