(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
Robust Inference for the Frisch Labor Supply Elasticity
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/swe/wpaper/2021-07d.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robust Inference for the Frisch Labor Supply Elasticity

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Keane

    (School of Economics)

  • Timothy Neal

    (UNSW School of Economics)

Abstract

The Frisch labor supply elasticity plays a key role in many policy debates, but its magnitude remains controversial. Many studies use 2SLS regressions of hours changes on wage changes to estimate the Frisch elasticity. But a little appreciated power asymmetry property of 2SLS causes estimates to appear (spuriously) imprecise when they are shifted away from the OLS bias. This makes it difficult for a 2SLS t-test to detect a true positive Frisch elasticity. We illustrate this problem in an application to NLSY97 data. We obtain a Frisch estimate of 0.60 for young men, but the t-test indicates it is insignificant. In contrast, the Anderson-Rubin (AR) test – which avoids the power asymmetry problem – implies the estimate is highly significant. The same power asymmetry issue that afflicts the t-test here will arise in many IV applications. Thus, we argue the AR test should be widely adopted in lieu of the t-test.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2022. "Robust Inference for the Frisch Labor Supply Elasticity," Discussion Papers 2021-07d, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2021-07d
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2021-07d.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moreira, Humberto & Moreira, Marcelo J., 2019. "Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 398-433.
    2. James P. Ziliak & Thomas J. Kniesner, 2005. "The Effect of Income Taxation on Consumption and Labor Supply," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(4), pages 769-796, October.
    3. Michael P. Keane & Nada Wasi, 2016. "Labour Supply: The Roles of Human Capital and The Extensive Margin," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(592), pages 578-617, May.
    4. Angrist, Joshua & Kolesár, Michal, 2024. "One instrument to rule them all: The bias and coverage of just-ID IV," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(2).
    5. James P. Ziliak & Thomas J. Kniesner, 1999. "Estimating Life Cycle Labor Supply Tax Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 326-359, April.
    6. Rogerson, Richard & Wallenius, Johanna, 2009. "Micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2277-2292, November.
    7. Chul-In Lee, 2001. "Finite Sample Bias In Iv Estimation Of Intertemporal Labor Supply Models: Is The Intertemporal Substitution Elasticity Really Small?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 638-646, November.
    8. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, July.
    9. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2006. "From Individual To Aggregate Labor Supply: A Quantitative Analysis Based On A Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomy ," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(1), pages 1-27, February.
    10. David Domeij & Martin Floden, 2006. "The Labor-Supply Elasticity and Borrowing Constraints: Why Estimates are Biased," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 242-262, April.
    11. Juan Carlos Conesa & Sagiri Kitao & Dirk Krueger, 2009. "Taxing Capital? Not a Bad Idea after All!," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 25-48, March.
    12. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    13. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    14. Moreira, Marcelo J., 2009. "Tests with correct size when instruments can be arbitrarily weak," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 131-140, October.
    15. Keane, Michael & Neal, Timothy, 2023. "Instrument strength in IV estimation and inference: A guide to theory and practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1625-1653.
    16. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2021. "A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 2021-05c, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    17. Iskhakov, Fedor & Keane, Michael, 2021. "Effects of taxes and safety net pensions on life-cycle labor supply, savings and human capital: The case of Australia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 401-432.
    18. Susumu Imai & Michael P. Keane, 2004. "Intertemporal Labor Supply and Human Capital Accumulation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 601-641, May.
    19. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2023. "Are Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits Holding Back Female Labour Supply?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 102-131.
    20. Frank Kleibergen, 2005. "Testing Parameters in GMM Without Assuming that They Are Identified," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1103-1123, July.
    21. Gottlieb, Charles & Onken, Joern & Valladares-Esteban, Arnau, 2021. "On the measurement of the elasticity of labour," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    22. Michael P. Keane, 2011. "Labor Supply and Taxes: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 961-1075, December.
    23. Altonji, Joseph G, 1986. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 176-215, June.
    24. Phillips, P.C.B., 1989. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 181-240, August.
    25. Keith Finlay & Leandro M. Magnusson, 2009. "Implementing weak-instrument robust tests for a general class of instrumental-variables models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(3), pages 398-421, September.
    26. MaCurdy, Thomas E, 1981. "An Empirical Model of Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Setting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1059-1085, December.
    27. Eric French & John Jones, 2012. "Public pensions and labor supply over the life cycle," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(2), pages 268-287, April.
    28. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    29. Isaiah Andrews & James H. Stock & Liyang Sun, 2019. "Weak Instruments in Instrumental Variables Regression: Theory and Practice," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 727-753, August.
    30. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-543, May.
    31. Ziliak, J. & Kniesner, T.J., 1995. "Estimating life-cycle labor supply tax effects," Other publications TiSEM 1b4b66ee-5312-4f01-8fe4-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    32. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2015. "Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Structural Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 89-117, August.
    33. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Yaron, Amir, 1996. "Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 262-280, July.
    34. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2015. "Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Structural Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 89-117, 08.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keane, Michael P., 2022. "Recent research on labor supply: Implications for tax and transfer policy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Zuzana Irsova, 2023. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: A Meta-Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1095-1113, December.
    3. Michael P. Keane & Nada Wasi, 2016. "Labour Supply: The Roles of Human Capital and The Extensive Margin," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(592), pages 578-617, May.
    4. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2021. "2SLS Using Weak Instruments: Implications for Estimating the Frisch Labor Supply Elasticity," Discussion Papers 2021-07, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. Charles Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2017. "Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply: A Review," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 37-42, January.
    6. Andrés Erosa & Luisa Fuster & Gueorgui Kambourov, 2016. "Towards a Micro-Founded Theory of Aggregate Labour Supply," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 1001-1039.
    7. Attanasio, Orazio & Low, Hamish & Sánchez-Marcos, Virginia & Levell, Peter, 2015. "Aggregating Elasticities: Intensive and Extensive Margins of Female Labour Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 10732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Michael P. Keane, 2015. "Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Tax Changes In A Life‐Cycle Labor Supply Model With Human Capital," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 485-503, May.
    9. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2013. "Does Indivisible Labor Explain the Difference between Micro and Macro Elasticities? A Meta-Analysis of Extensive Margin Elasticities," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-56.
    10. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2012. "Review of Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply: Working Paper 2012-13," Working Papers 43676, Congressional Budget Office.
    11. Michael P. Keane, 2015. "Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Tax Changes In A Life‐Cycle Labor Supply Model With Human Capital," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 485-503, May.
    12. Keane, Michael & Neal, Timothy, 2023. "Instrument strength in IV estimation and inference: A guide to theory and practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1625-1653.
    13. Antonio Cutanda & Juan A. Sanchis-Llopis, 2021. "Joint estimation of intertemporal labor and consumption decisions: evidence from Spanish households headed by working men," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(4), pages 611-629, December.
    14. Keane, Michael, 2010. "The Tax-Transfer System and Labour Supply," MPRA Paper 55167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Alejandro Badel & Mark Huggett & Wenlan Luo, 2020. "Taxing Top Earners: a Human Capital Perspective," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(629), pages 1200-1225.
    16. Michael P. Keane, 2011. "Labor Supply and Taxes: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 961-1075, December.
    17. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & Richard Rogerson, 2022. "Hours and Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1901-1962.
    18. Juan Alberto Sanchis Llopis & Antonio Cutanda, 2023. "Labour Supply Responses to Income Tax Changes in Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 245(2), pages 71-94, June.
    19. Richard Rogerson & Johanna Wallenius, 2018. "Household Time Use Among Older Couples: Evidence and Implications for Labor Supply," 2018 Meeting Papers 90, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Scott French & Tess Stafford, 2017. "Returns to Experience and the Elasticity of Labor Supply," Discussion Papers 2017-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Frisch elasticity; labor supply; weak instruments; 2SLS; Anderson-Rubin test; LIML; Continuously Updated GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2021-07d. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hongyi Li (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/senswau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.