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Valuing mortality risk in the time of covid-19
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Valuing mortality risk in the time of covid-19

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  • Hammitt, James K.

Abstract

In evaluating the appropriate response to the covid-19 pandemic, a key parameter is the rate of substitution between mortality risk and wealth or income, conventionally summarized as the value per statistical life (VSL). For the United States, VSL is estimated as approximately $10 million, which implies the value of preventing 100,000 covid-19 deaths is $1 trillion. Is this value too large? There are reasons to think so. First, VSL is a marginal rate of substitution and the potential risk reductions are non-marginal. The standard VSL model implies the rate of substitution of wealth for risk reduction is smaller when the risk reduction is larger, but the implied value of non-marginal risk reductions decreases slowly until the value accounts for a substantial share of income, after which it decreases sharply; average individuals are predicted to be willing to spend more than half their income to reduce one-year mortality risk by only 1 in 100. Second, mortality risk is concentrated among the elderly, for whom VSL may be smaller and who would benefit from a persistent risk reduction for a shorter period because of their shorter life expectancy. Third, the pandemic and responses to it have caused substantial losses in income that should decrease VSL. In contrast, VSL is plausibly larger for risks (like covid-19) that are dreaded, uncertain, catastrophic, and ambiguous. These arguments are evaluated and key issues for improving estimates are highlighted.

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  • Hammitt, James K., 2020. "Valuing mortality risk in the time of covid-19," TSE Working Papers 20-1115, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:124382
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    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Policy trade-offs

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    3. Brad R. Humphreys & Gary A. Wagner & John C. Whitehead & Pamela Wicker, "undated". "Willingness to pay for COVID-19 environmental health risk reductions in consumption: Evidence from U.S. professional sports," Working Papers 21-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    4. Hammitt, James K. & Tuncel, Tuba, 2023. "Monetary values of increasing life expectancy: sensitivity to shifts of the survival curve," TSE Working Papers 23-1416, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Adler, Matthew, 2020. "What should we spend to save lives in a pandemic? A critique of the value of statistical life," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. James K. Hammitt & Tuba Tunçel, 2023. "Monetary values of increasing life expectancy: Sensitivity to shifts of the survival curve," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 239-269, December.
    7. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Vaccination rates and COVID outcomes across U.S. states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    8. Euijune Kim & Dongyeong Jin & Hojune Lee & Min Jiang, 2023. "The economic damage of COVID-19 on regional economies: an application of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to South Korea," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 71(1), pages 243-268, August.
    9. Yoshiro Tsutsui & Iku Tsutsui-Kimura, 2022. "How does risk preference change under the stress of COVID-19? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 191-212, April.
    10. Enza Simeone, 2024. "Assessing the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on wellbeing: a comparison between CBA and SWF approaches for policies evaluation," Working Papers 662, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    11. Thomas J. Kniesner & Ryan Sullivan, 2020. "The forgotten numbers: A closer look at COVID-19 non-fatal valuations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 155-176, October.
    12. Patrick Carlin & Brian E. Dixon & Kosali I. Simon & Ryan Sullivan & Coady Wing, 2022. "How Undervalued is the Covid-19 Vaccine? Evidence from Discrete Choice Experiments and VSL Benchmarks," NBER Working Papers 30118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    14. Cardoso, Diego S. & Dahis, Ricardo, 2024. "Calculating the economic value of non-marginal mortality risk reductions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    15. Nadia J. Sweis, 2022. "Revisiting the value of a statistical life: an international approach during COVID-19," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 259-272, September.
    16. Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Grass, Dieter & Feichtinger, Gustav & Hartl, Richard F. & Kort, Peter M. & Prskawetz, Alexia & Seidl, Andrea & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2021. "The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    17. W. Kip Viscusi, 2021. "Economic lessons for COVID‐19 pandemic policies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(4), pages 1064-1089, April.
    18. St-Amour, Pascal, 2024. "Valuing life over the life cycle," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    value per statistical life; pandemic; age-dependence; ambiguity aversion; risk perception;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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