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The zero lower bound and parameter bias in an estimated DSGE model
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The zero lower bound and parameter bias in an estimated DSGE model

Author

Listed:
  • Yasuo Hirose

    (Keio University)

  • Atsushi Inoue

    (Vanderbilt University)

Abstract

This paper examines how and to what extent parameter estimates can be biased in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that omits the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our Monte Carlo experiments using a standard sticky-price DSGE model show that no significant bias is detected in parameter estimates and that the estimated impulse response functions are quite similar to the true ones. However, as the probability of hitting the ZLB increases, the parameter bias becomes larger and therefore leads to substantial differences between the estimated and true impulse responses. It is also demonstrated that the model missing the ZLB causes biased estimates of structural shocks even with the virtually unbiased parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2014. "The zero lower bound and parameter bias in an estimated DSGE model," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 14-00009, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-14-00009
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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